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Türkiye vs Italy Prediction, H2H & Stats

World: UEFA Nations League · League A - 2
Türkiye

Türkiye

4th in table
WLLLL
Full time
1:4
HT 0 - 3
Italy

Italy

2nd in table
WLWDW
9' Alessandro Bastoni
22' Davide Frattesi
27' Michael Kayode
38' Can Uzun
47' Barış Alper Yılmaz
50' Pio Esposito
54' Barış Alper Yılmaz
72' Ozan Kabak
Monday, 28 September 2026
Bursa Büyükşehir Stadyumu, Bursa
Michael Oliver, England

Head to head

Last 3 meetings
3games
0Türkiye wins
1Draws
2Italy wins
2.7Goals per game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
04 Jun 2024Friendlies Italy 0 - 0 Türkiye
29 Mar 2022Friendlies Türkiye 2 - 3 Italy
11 Jun 2021Euro Championship Türkiye 0 - 3 Italy

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGoalsGDPtsForm
1 France 4310 7:2 +5 10 WDWW
2 Italy 4211 8:5 +3 7 WDWL
3 Belgium 4202 6:5 +1 6 LWLW
4 Türkiye 4004 2:11 -9 0 LLLL

Top scorers

UEFA Nations League
1 H. KaneEngland 6goals 1assists 4apps
2 M. OliseFrance 4goals 2assists 4apps
3 Lamine YamalSpain 4goals 1assists 4apps
4 L. WaltaFinland 4goals 1assists 4apps
5 V. GyökeresSweden 4goals 0assists 4apps
6 T. ParrottRep. Of Ireland 4goals 0assists 4apps
7 O. ÓskarssonIceland 3goals 2assists 4apps
8 Mikel MerinoSpain 3goals 1assists 4apps
9 Gonçalo RamosPortugal 3goals 1assists 4apps
10 João FélixPortugal 3goals 1assists 4apps

Recent form

4 W 0 D 6 L in the last 10
05 Oct 2026UEFA Nations League Italy 3 - 1 Türkiye L
02 Oct 2026UEFA Nations League Belgium 3 - 0 Türkiye L
28 Sep 2026UEFA Nations League Türkiye 1 - 4 Italy L
25 Sep 2026UEFA Nations League Türkiye 0 - 1 France L
26 Jun 2026World Cup Türkiye 3 - 2 USA W
20 Jun 2026World Cup Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay L
14 Jun 2026World Cup Australia 2 - 0 Türkiye L
06 Jun 2026Friendlies Venezuela 1 - 2 Türkiye W
01 Jun 2026Friendlies Türkiye 4 - 0 FYR Macedonia W
31 Mar 2026World Cup - Qualification Europe Kosovo 0 - 1 Türkiye W
6 W 2 D 2 L in the last 10
05 Oct 2026UEFA Nations League Italy 3 - 1 Türkiye W
02 Oct 2026UEFA Nations League France 1 - 1 Italy D
28 Sep 2026UEFA Nations League Türkiye 1 - 4 Italy W
25 Sep 2026UEFA Nations League Italy 0 - 2 Belgium L
07 Jun 2026Friendlies Greece 0 - 1 Italy W
03 Jun 2026Friendlies Luxembourg 0 - 1 Italy W
31 Mar 2026World Cup - Qualification Europe Bosnia & Herzegovina 1 - 1 Italy D
26 Mar 2026World Cup - Qualification Europe Italy 2 - 0 Northern Ireland W
16 Nov 2025World Cup - Qualification Europe Italy 1 - 4 Norway L
13 Nov 2025World Cup - Qualification Europe Moldova 0 - 2 Italy W

Who wins? Three ways to read it

1 · X · 2
Goal model
Form & stats
Bookmaker odds
Türkiye Draw Italy
Value spotted: Türkiye win at 2.72 (model 44% vs market 36%)

Most likely scores

1-1 12.6%
1-0 11.5%
0-1 9%
2-1 8.8%
0-0 8.2%
2-0 8%

Expected goals: 1.4 Türkiye · 1.1 Italy

Goal lines

Over 1.5 goals71%
Over 2.5 goals46%
Over 3.5 goals24%
Both teams score50%

Team comparison

Form Attack Defence Goal model Head to head Goals Overall
0%
Form
0%
0%
Attack
0%
67%
Defence
33%
0%
Goal model
0%
13%
Head to head
88%
25%
Goals
75%
35%
Overall
65%

Season numbers

UEFA Nations League 2026

When the goals come

0
0-15'
0
0
16-30'
0
0
31-45'
0
0
46-60'
0
0
61-75'
0
0
76-90'
0
0
0-15'
0
0
16-30'
1
0
31-45'
0
1
46-60'
0
0
61-75'
1
0
76-90'
0
Türkiye Italy

Side by side

Türkiye Italy
1 Played 1
0 Won 0
0 Drawn 0
1 Lost 1
0 Goals scored per game 0
1 Goals conceded per game 2
0 / 0 Scored per game (home / away) 0 / 0
0 Clean sheets 0
1 Failed to score 1
0 Longest winning run 0
- Biggest win -
0-1 Biggest defeat 0-2
0/0 Penalties scored 0/0

Türkiye vs Italy: preview and prediction

Türkiye host Italy in the World UEFA Nations League (League A - 2) on Monday, 28th September 2026 at 19:45 at Bursa Büyükşehir Stadyumu, Bursa. Türkiye sit 4th in the table and Italy 2nd.

Türkiye are struggling, with 1 win, 0 draws and 4 defeats in their last 5 games (W-L-L-L-L). Italy are in good shape, with 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 games (W-L-W-D-W).

In the last 3 meetings, Türkiye won 0, Italy won 2 and 1 ended level. These games average 2.7 goals, with both teams scoring in 33% and over 2.5 goals in 67%.

Our goal model expects about 1.4 goals for Türkiye and 1.1 for Italy. It gives Türkiye the edge (44% home win, 27% draw, 30% away win), 46% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score. The most likely score is 1-1.

Our pick was Away Win at odds of 2.56.

Published by

Football Analyst & Predictor · Rarabet

Türkiye vs Italy FAQs

What is the best prediction for Türkiye vs Italy?

Our top tip is Away Win: Away Win (2.56 odds).

Who will win Türkiye vs Italy?

Türkiye are favourites: our model gives Türkiye 44%, the draw 27% and Italy 30%.

Will both teams score?

Both teams scoring has a 50% chance in our model, and it happened in 33% of recent meetings.

How many goals are expected?

Our model expects 2.5 goals in total, with a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals.

When is Türkiye vs Italy?

Kick-off is on Monday, 28th September 2026 at 19:45 at Bursa Büyükşehir Stadyumu, Bursa.

Who is the referee?

Michael Oliver, England is in charge of this game.