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Wales vs Denmark Prediction, H2H & Stats

World: UEFA Nations League · League A - 4
Wales

Wales

3rd in table
LLLWL
Full time
0:1
HT 0 - 0
Denmark

Denmark

2nd in table
WLWLW
29' Liam Cullen
66' Ben Cabango
75' R. Hojlund (Penalty)
80' Sorba Thomas
90+4' Mads Hermansen
Sunday, 4 October 2026
Cardiff City Stadium, Cardiff
Irfan Peljto, Bosnia & Herzegovina

Head to head

Last 4 meetings
4games
0Wales wins
0Draws
4Denmark wins
2.8Goals per game
25%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
27 Sep 2026UEFA Nations League Denmark 2 - 0 Wales
26 Jun 2021Euro Championship Wales 0 - 4 Denmark
16 Nov 2018UEFA Nations League Wales 1 - 2 Denmark
09 Sep 2018UEFA Nations League Denmark 2 - 0 Wales

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGoalsGDPtsForm
1 Portugal 4400 9:4 +5 12 WWWW
2 Denmark 4202 7:7 0 6 WLWL
3 Wales 4103 2:5 -3 3 LWLL
4 Norway 4103 6:8 -2 3 LLLW

Top scorers

UEFA Nations League
1 H. KaneEngland 6goals 1assists 4apps
2 M. OliseFrance 4goals 2assists 4apps
3 Lamine YamalSpain 4goals 1assists 4apps
4 L. WaltaFinland 4goals 1assists 4apps
5 V. GyökeresSweden 4goals 0assists 4apps
6 T. ParrottRep. Of Ireland 4goals 0assists 4apps
7 O. ÓskarssonIceland 3goals 2assists 4apps
8 Mikel MerinoSpain 3goals 1assists 4apps
9 Gonçalo RamosPortugal 3goals 1assists 4apps
10 João FélixPortugal 3goals 1assists 4apps

Recent form

3 W 3 D 4 L in the last 10
04 Oct 2026UEFA Nations League Wales 0 - 1 Denmark L
01 Oct 2026UEFA Nations League Wales 2 - 1 Norway W
27 Sep 2026UEFA Nations League Denmark 2 - 0 Wales L
24 Sep 2026UEFA Nations League Portugal 1 - 0 Wales L
06 Jun 2026Friendlies Romania 2 - 1 Wales L
02 Jun 2026Friendlies Wales 1 - 1 Ghana D
31 Mar 2026Friendlies Wales 1 - 1 Northern Ireland D
26 Mar 2026World Cup - Qualification Europe Wales 1 - 1 Bosnia & Herzegovina D
18 Nov 2025World Cup - Qualification Europe Wales 7 - 1 FYR Macedonia W
15 Nov 2025World Cup - Qualification Europe Liechtenstein 0 - 1 Wales W
4 W 3 D 3 L in the last 10
04 Oct 2026UEFA Nations League Wales 0 - 1 Denmark W
01 Oct 2026UEFA Nations League Denmark 2 - 4 Portugal L
27 Sep 2026UEFA Nations League Denmark 2 - 0 Wales W
24 Sep 2026UEFA Nations League Norway 3 - 2 Denmark L
07 Jun 2026Friendlies Denmark 2 - 1 Ukraine W
03 Jun 2026Friendlies Congo DR 0 - 0 Denmark D
31 Mar 2026World Cup - Qualification Europe Czechia 1 - 1 Denmark D
26 Mar 2026World Cup - Qualification Europe Denmark 4 - 0 FYR Macedonia W
18 Nov 2025World Cup - Qualification Europe Scotland 4 - 2 Denmark L
15 Nov 2025World Cup - Qualification Europe Denmark 2 - 2 Belarus D

Who wins? Three ways to read it

1 · X · 2
Goal model
Form & stats
Bookmaker odds
Wales Draw Denmark
Value spotted: Wales win at 3.76 (model 59% vs market 26%)

Most likely scores

2-1 8.6%
3-1 7.2%
1-1 6.9%
2-2 6.4%
2-0 5.7%
3-2 5.4%

Expected goals: 2.5 Wales · 1.5 Denmark

Goal lines

Over 1.5 goals90%
Over 2.5 goals76%
Over 3.5 goals56%
Both teams score71%

Team comparison

Form Attack Defence Goal model Head to head Goals Overall
50%
Form
50%
25%
Attack
75%
64%
Defence
36%
76%
Goal model
24%
0%
Head to head
100%
9%
Goals
91%
44%
Overall
55%

Season numbers

UEFA Nations League 2026

When the goals come

0
0-15'
0
0
16-30'
2
1
31-45'
0
2
46-60'
2
0
61-75'
1
0
76-90'
0
1
0-15'
2
1
16-30'
2
0
31-45'
0
0
46-60'
1
1
61-75'
2
0
76-90'
1
Wales Denmark

Side by side

Wales Denmark
3 Played 3
1 Won 1
0 Drawn 0
2 Lost 2
0.7 Goals scored per game 2
1.3 Goals conceded per game 2.3
2 / 0 Scored per game (home / away) 2 / 2
0 Clean sheets 1
2 Failed to score 0
0 Longest winning run 1
2-1 Biggest win 2-0
2-0 Biggest defeat 2-4
0/0 Penalties scored 0/0

Wales vs Denmark: preview and prediction

Wales host Denmark in the World UEFA Nations League (League A - 4) on Sunday, 4th October 2026 at 19:45 at Cardiff City Stadium, Cardiff. Wales sit 3rd in the table and Denmark 2nd.

Wales are struggling, with 1 win, 0 draws and 4 defeats in their last 5 games (L-L-L-W-L). Denmark are in good shape, with 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 games (W-L-W-L-W).

In the last 4 meetings, Wales won 0, Denmark won 4 and 0 ended level. These games average 2.8 goals, with both teams scoring in 25% and over 2.5 goals in 50%.

Our goal model expects about 2.5 goals for Wales and 1.5 for Denmark. It gives Wales the edge (59% home win, 19% draw, 22% away win), 76% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score. The most likely score is 2-1.

Our pick was Away or Draw at odds of 1.30.

Published by

Football Analyst & Predictor · Rarabet

Wales vs Denmark FAQs

What is the best prediction for Wales vs Denmark?

Our top tip is Double Chance: Away or Draw (1.30 odds).

Who will win Wales vs Denmark?

Wales are favourites: our model gives Wales 59%, the draw 19% and Denmark 22%.

Will both teams score?

Both teams scoring has a 71% chance in our model, and it happened in 25% of recent meetings.

How many goals are expected?

Our model expects 4 goals in total, with a 76% chance of over 2.5 goals.

When is Wales vs Denmark?

Kick-off is on Sunday, 4th October 2026 at 19:45 at Cardiff City Stadium, Cardiff.

Who is the referee?

Irfan Peljto, Bosnia & Herzegovina is in charge of this game.