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Azerbaijan vs Lithuania Prediction, H2H & Stats

World: UEFA Nations League · League D - 4
Azerbaijan

Azerbaijan

1st in table
WWDDW
Full time
1:0
HT 1 - 0
Lithuania

Lithuania

2nd in table
LWDWL
25' Abdulakh Khaybulaev
33' Abdulakh Khaybulaev
43' Modestas Vorobjovas
54' Artur Dolznikov
57' Vüsal İsgändärli
90+2' Elvin Badalov
90+7' Eligijus Jankauskas
90+7' Armandas Kučys
Sunday, 4 October 2026
Bakcell Arena, Baku
Gustavo Correia, Portugal

Head to head

Last 2 meetings
2games
0Azerbaijan wins
2Draws
0Lithuania wins
1Goals per game
50%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
27 Sep 2026UEFA Nations League Lithuania 1 - 1 Azerbaijan
25 Mar 2019Friendlies Azerbaijan 0 - 0 Lithuania

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGoalsGDPtsForm
1 Azerbaijan 3120 2:1 +1 5 WDD
2 Lithuania 3111 3:2 +1 4 LDW
3 Liechtenstein 2011 0:2 -2 1 DL

Top scorers

UEFA Nations League
1 H. KaneEngland 6goals 1assists 4apps
2 M. OliseFrance 4goals 2assists 4apps
3 Lamine YamalSpain 4goals 1assists 4apps
4 L. WaltaFinland 4goals 1assists 4apps
5 V. GyökeresSweden 4goals 0assists 4apps
6 T. ParrottRep. Of Ireland 4goals 0assists 4apps
7 O. ÓskarssonIceland 3goals 2assists 4apps
8 Mikel MerinoSpain 3goals 1assists 4apps
9 Gonçalo RamosPortugal 3goals 1assists 4apps
10 João FélixPortugal 3goals 1assists 4apps

Recent form

4 W 3 D 3 L in the last 10
04 Oct 2026UEFA Nations League Azerbaijan 1 - 0 Lithuania W
01 Oct 2026UEFA Nations League Azerbaijan 0 - 0 Liechtenstein D
27 Sep 2026UEFA Nations League Lithuania 1 - 1 Azerbaijan D
23 Sep 2026Friendlies Azerbaijan 1 - 0 Tajikistan W
09 Jun 2026Friendlies Azerbaijan 2 - 1 San Marino W
05 Jun 2026Friendlies Azerbaijan 0 - 2 Malta L
30 Mar 2026FIFA Series Azerbaijan 1 - 1 Sierra Leone D
27 Mar 2026FIFA Series Azerbaijan 6 - 1 St. Lucia W
16 Nov 2025World Cup - Qualification Europe Azerbaijan 1 - 3 France L
13 Nov 2025World Cup - Qualification Europe Azerbaijan 0 - 2 Iceland L
3 W 3 D 4 L in the last 10
04 Oct 2026UEFA Nations League Azerbaijan 1 - 0 Lithuania L
30 Sep 2026Friendlies Lithuania 3 - 0 Andorra W
27 Sep 2026UEFA Nations League Lithuania 1 - 1 Azerbaijan D
24 Sep 2026UEFA Nations League Liechtenstein 0 - 2 Lithuania W
09 Jun 2026Baltic Cup Estonia 1 - 0 Lithuania L
06 Jun 2026Baltic Cup Lithuania 1 - 1 Latvia D
29 Mar 2026Friendlies Lithuania 0 - 2 Georgia L
26 Mar 2026Friendlies Moldova 0 - 2 Lithuania W
17 Nov 2025World Cup - Qualification Europe Netherlands 4 - 0 Lithuania L
13 Nov 2025Friendlies Lithuania 0 - 0 Israel D

Who wins? Three ways to read it

1 · X · 2
Goal model
Form & stats
Bookmaker odds
Azerbaijan Draw Lithuania
Value spotted: Lithuania win at 3.34 (model 55% vs market 29%)

Most likely scores

0-1 21.7%
0-0 17.4%
0-2 13.6%
1-1 10.9%
1-0 8.7%
1-2 6.8%

Expected goals: 0.5 Azerbaijan · 1.25 Lithuania

Goal lines

Over 1.5 goals52%
Over 2.5 goals26%
Over 3.5 goals10%
Both teams score28%

Team comparison

Form Attack Defence Goal model Head to head Goals Overall
33%
Form
67%
25%
Attack
75%
50%
Defence
50%
0%
Goal model
0%
50%
Head to head
50%
50%
Goals
50%
41%
Overall
58%

Season numbers

UEFA Nations League 2026

When the goals come

1
0-15'
1
0
16-30'
0
0
31-45'
0
0
46-60'
1
0
61-75'
1
0
76-90'
0
1
0-15'
1
0
16-30'
0
0
31-45'
0
0
46-60'
0
0
61-75'
0
0
76-90'
0
Azerbaijan Lithuania

Side by side

Azerbaijan Lithuania
2 Played 2
0 Won 1
2 Drawn 1
0 Lost 0
0.5 Goals scored per game 1.5
0.5 Goals conceded per game 0.5
0 / 1 Scored per game (home / away) 1 / 2
1 Clean sheets 1
1 Failed to score 0
0 Longest winning run 1
- Biggest win 0-2
- Biggest defeat -
0/0 Penalties scored 1/1

Azerbaijan vs Lithuania: preview and prediction

Azerbaijan host Lithuania in the World UEFA Nations League (League D - 4) on Sunday, 4th October 2026 at 14:00 at Bakcell Arena, Baku. Azerbaijan sit 1st in the table and Lithuania 2nd.

Azerbaijan are in good shape, with 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 games (W-W-D-D-W). Lithuania have been inconsistent, with 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 games (L-W-D-W-L).

In the last 2 meetings, Azerbaijan won 0, Lithuania won 0 and 2 ended level. These games average 1 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% and over 2.5 goals in 0%.

Our goal model expects about 0.5 goals for Azerbaijan and 1.25 for Lithuania. It gives Lithuania the edge (15% home win, 30% draw, 55% away win), 26% for over 2.5 goals and 28% for both teams to score. The most likely score is 0-1.

Our pick was Away or Draw at odds of 1.65. We also like Under 2.5.

Published by

Football Analyst & Predictor · Rarabet

Azerbaijan vs Lithuania FAQs

What is the best prediction for Azerbaijan vs Lithuania?

Our top tip is Double Chance: Away or Draw (1.65 odds).

Who will win Azerbaijan vs Lithuania?

Lithuania are favourites: our model gives Azerbaijan 15%, the draw 30% and Lithuania 55%.

Will both teams score?

Both teams scoring has a 28% chance in our model, and it happened in 50% of recent meetings.

How many goals are expected?

Our model expects 1.8 goals in total, with a 26% chance of over 2.5 goals.

When is Azerbaijan vs Lithuania?

Kick-off is on Sunday, 4th October 2026 at 14:00 at Bakcell Arena, Baku.

Who is the referee?

Gustavo Correia, Portugal is in charge of this game.