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Italy vs Türkiye Prediction, H2H & Stats

World: UEFA Nations League · League A - 4
Italy

Italy

2nd in table
WLWDW
Full time
3:1
HT 1 - 0
Türkiye

Türkiye

4th in table
WLLLL
26' G. Scamacca
42' Gianluca Scamacca
47' Matteo Ruggeri
55' Zeki Çelik
61' A. Simsir
64' R. Calafiori
81' Abdülkerim Bardakcı
87' F. Esposito
Monday, 5 October 2026
Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Bologna
Szymon Marciniak

Head to head

Last 4 meetings
4games
3Italy wins
1Draws
0Türkiye wins
3.3Goals per game
50%Both scored
75%Over 2.5
28 Sep 2026UEFA Nations League Türkiye 1 - 4 Italy
04 Jun 2024Friendlies Italy 0 - 0 Türkiye
29 Mar 2022Friendlies Türkiye 2 - 3 Italy
11 Jun 2021Euro Championship Türkiye 0 - 3 Italy

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGoalsGDPtsForm
1 France 4310 7:2 +5 10 WDWW
2 Italy 4211 8:5 +3 7 WDWL
3 Belgium 4202 6:5 +1 6 LWLW
4 Türkiye 4004 2:11 -9 0 LLLL

Top scorers

UEFA Nations League
1 H. KaneEngland 6goals 1assists 4apps
2 M. OliseFrance 4goals 2assists 4apps
3 Lamine YamalSpain 4goals 1assists 4apps
4 L. WaltaFinland 4goals 1assists 4apps
5 V. GyökeresSweden 4goals 0assists 4apps
6 T. ParrottRep. Of Ireland 4goals 0assists 4apps
7 O. ÓskarssonIceland 3goals 2assists 4apps
8 Mikel MerinoSpain 3goals 1assists 4apps
9 Gonçalo RamosPortugal 3goals 1assists 4apps
10 João FélixPortugal 3goals 1assists 4apps

Recent form

6 W 2 D 2 L in the last 10
05 Oct 2026UEFA Nations League Italy 3 - 1 Türkiye W
02 Oct 2026UEFA Nations League France 1 - 1 Italy D
28 Sep 2026UEFA Nations League Türkiye 1 - 4 Italy W
25 Sep 2026UEFA Nations League Italy 0 - 2 Belgium L
07 Jun 2026Friendlies Greece 0 - 1 Italy W
03 Jun 2026Friendlies Luxembourg 0 - 1 Italy W
31 Mar 2026World Cup - Qualification Europe Bosnia & Herzegovina 1 - 1 Italy D
26 Mar 2026World Cup - Qualification Europe Italy 2 - 0 Northern Ireland W
16 Nov 2025World Cup - Qualification Europe Italy 1 - 4 Norway L
13 Nov 2025World Cup - Qualification Europe Moldova 0 - 2 Italy W
4 W 0 D 6 L in the last 10
05 Oct 2026UEFA Nations League Italy 3 - 1 Türkiye L
02 Oct 2026UEFA Nations League Belgium 3 - 0 Türkiye L
28 Sep 2026UEFA Nations League Türkiye 1 - 4 Italy L
25 Sep 2026UEFA Nations League Türkiye 0 - 1 France L
26 Jun 2026World Cup Türkiye 3 - 2 USA W
20 Jun 2026World Cup Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay L
14 Jun 2026World Cup Australia 2 - 0 Türkiye L
06 Jun 2026Friendlies Venezuela 1 - 2 Türkiye W
01 Jun 2026Friendlies Türkiye 4 - 0 FYR Macedonia W
31 Mar 2026World Cup - Qualification Europe Kosovo 0 - 1 Türkiye W

Who wins? Three ways to read it

1 · X · 2
Goal model
Form & stats
Bookmaker odds
Italy Draw Türkiye

Most likely scores

2-1 9.6%
2-0 8.3%
1-1 8.2%
3-1 7.5%
1-0 7.1%
3-0 6.5%

Expected goals: 2.35 Italy · 1.15 Türkiye

Goal lines

Over 1.5 goals86%
Over 2.5 goals68%
Over 3.5 goals46%
Both teams score62%

Team comparison

Form Attack Defence Goal model Head to head Goals Overall
100%
Form
0%
83%
Attack
17%
67%
Defence
33%
0%
Goal model
0%
91%
Head to head
9%
77%
Goals
23%
79%
Overall
20%

Season numbers

UEFA Nations League 2026

When the goals come

1
0-15'
0
2
16-30'
0
0
31-45'
0
1
46-60'
1
1
61-75'
0
0
76-90'
0
0
0-15'
2
1
16-30'
2
0
31-45'
0
2
46-60'
3
1
61-75'
0
0
76-90'
1
Italy Türkiye

Side by side

Italy Türkiye
3 Played 3
1 Won 0
1 Drawn 0
1 Lost 3
1.7 Goals scored per game 0.3
1.3 Goals conceded per game 2.7
0 / 2.5 Scored per game (home / away) 0.5 / 0
0 Clean sheets 0
1 Failed to score 2
1 Longest winning run 0
1-4 Biggest win -
0-2 Biggest defeat 1-4
0/0 Penalties scored 0/0

Italy vs Türkiye: preview and prediction

Italy host Türkiye in the World UEFA Nations League (League A - 4) on Monday, 5th October 2026 at 19:45 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Bologna. Italy sit 2nd in the table and Türkiye 4th.

Italy are in good shape, with 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 games (W-L-W-D-W). Türkiye are struggling, with 1 win, 0 draws and 4 defeats in their last 5 games (W-L-L-L-L).

In the last 4 meetings, Italy won 3, Türkiye won 0 and 1 ended level. These games average 3.3 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% and over 2.5 goals in 75%.

Our goal model expects about 2.35 goals for Italy and 1.15 for Türkiye. It gives Italy the edge (64% home win, 19% draw, 17% away win), 68% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score. The most likely score is 2-1.

Our pick was Home Win. We also like Under 3.5, Draw No Bet: Home, Home Wins Either Half.

Published by

Football Analyst & Predictor · Rarabet

Italy vs Türkiye FAQs

What is the best prediction for Italy vs Türkiye?

Our top tip is Banker: Home Win.

Who will win Italy vs Türkiye?

Italy are favourites: our model gives Italy 64%, the draw 19% and Türkiye 17%.

Will both teams score?

Both teams scoring has a 62% chance in our model, and it happened in 50% of recent meetings.

How many goals are expected?

Our model expects 3.5 goals in total, with a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals.

When is Italy vs Türkiye?

Kick-off is on Monday, 5th October 2026 at 19:45 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Bologna.

Who is the referee?

Szymon Marciniak is in charge of this game.