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France vs Italy Prediction, H2H & Stats

World: UEFA Nations League · League A - 3
France

France

1st in table
LWWDW
Full time
1:1
HT 0 - 0
Italy

Italy

2nd in table
WLWDW
54' Nicolò Fagioli
55' M. Olise
68' A. Bastoni
73' Dayot Upamecano
73' Moise Kean
82' Antonio Vergara
85' Dayot Upamecano
85' Dayot Upamecano
90+2' Alessandro Bastoni
Friday, 2 October 2026
Stade de France, Paris
Jesus Gil Manzano, Spain

Head to head

Last 4 meetings
4games
2France wins
0Draws
2Italy wins
3.5Goals per game
75%Both scored
75%Over 2.5
17 Nov 2024UEFA Nations League Italy 1 - 3 France
06 Sep 2024UEFA Nations League France 1 - 3 Italy
01 Jun 2018Friendlies France 3 - 1 Italy
17 Jun 2008Euro Championship France 0 - 2 Italy

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGoalsGDPtsForm
1 France 4310 7:2 +5 10 WDWW
2 Italy 4211 8:5 +3 7 WDWL
3 Belgium 4202 6:5 +1 6 LWLW
4 Türkiye 4004 2:11 -9 0 LLLL

Top scorers

UEFA Nations League
1 H. KaneEngland 6goals 1assists 4apps
2 M. OliseFrance 4goals 2assists 4apps
3 Lamine YamalSpain 4goals 1assists 4apps
4 L. WaltaFinland 4goals 1assists 4apps
5 V. GyökeresSweden 4goals 0assists 4apps
6 T. ParrottRep. Of Ireland 4goals 0assists 4apps
7 O. ÓskarssonIceland 3goals 2assists 4apps
8 Mikel MerinoSpain 3goals 1assists 4apps
9 Gonçalo RamosPortugal 3goals 1assists 4apps
10 João FélixPortugal 3goals 1assists 4apps

Recent form

7 W 1 D 2 L in the last 10
05 Oct 2026UEFA Nations League France 4 - 1 Belgium W
02 Oct 2026UEFA Nations League France 1 - 1 Italy D
28 Sep 2026UEFA Nations League Belgium 0 - 1 France W
25 Sep 2026UEFA Nations League Türkiye 0 - 1 France W
18 Jul 2026World Cup France 4 - 6 England L
14 Jul 2026World Cup France 0 - 2 Spain L
09 Jul 2026World Cup France 2 - 0 Morocco W
04 Jul 2026World Cup Paraguay 0 - 1 France W
30 Jun 2026World Cup France 3 - 0 Sweden W
26 Jun 2026World Cup Norway 1 - 4 France W
6 W 2 D 2 L in the last 10
05 Oct 2026UEFA Nations League Italy 3 - 1 Türkiye W
02 Oct 2026UEFA Nations League France 1 - 1 Italy D
28 Sep 2026UEFA Nations League Türkiye 1 - 4 Italy W
25 Sep 2026UEFA Nations League Italy 0 - 2 Belgium L
07 Jun 2026Friendlies Greece 0 - 1 Italy W
03 Jun 2026Friendlies Luxembourg 0 - 1 Italy W
31 Mar 2026World Cup - Qualification Europe Bosnia & Herzegovina 1 - 1 Italy D
26 Mar 2026World Cup - Qualification Europe Italy 2 - 0 Northern Ireland W
16 Nov 2025World Cup - Qualification Europe Italy 1 - 4 Norway L
13 Nov 2025World Cup - Qualification Europe Moldova 0 - 2 Italy W

Who wins? Three ways to read it

1 · X · 2
Goal model
Form & stats
Bookmaker odds
France Draw Italy
Value spotted: Italy win at 6.98 (model 83% vs market 14%)

Most likely scores

0-3 7.2%
0-4 7.2%
1-3 7.2%
1-4 7.2%
0-5 5.7%
1-5 5.7%

Expected goals: 1 France · 4 Italy

Goal lines

Over 1.5 goals91%
Over 2.5 goals82%
Over 3.5 goals68%
Both teams score59%

Team comparison

Form Attack Defence Goal model Head to head Goals Overall
67%
Form
33%
33%
Attack
67%
100%
Defence
0%
0%
Goal model
0%
50%
Head to head
50%
50%
Goals
50%
50%
Overall
50%

Season numbers

UEFA Nations League 2026

When the goals come

0
0-15'
1
0
16-30'
2
0
31-45'
0
1
46-60'
1
0
61-75'
0
1
76-90'
0
0
0-15'
0
0
16-30'
1
0
31-45'
0
0
46-60'
1
0
61-75'
1
0
76-90'
0
France Italy

Side by side

France Italy
2 Played 2
2 Won 1
0 Drawn 0
0 Lost 1
1 Goals scored per game 2
0 Goals conceded per game 1.5
0 / 1 Scored per game (home / away) 0 / 4
2 Clean sheets 0
0 Failed to score 1
2 Longest winning run 0
0-1 Biggest win 1-4
- Biggest defeat 0-2
0/0 Penalties scored 0/0

France vs Italy: preview and prediction

France host Italy in the World UEFA Nations League (League A - 3) on Friday, 2nd October 2026 at 19:45 at Stade de France, Paris. France sit 1st in the table and Italy 2nd.

France are in good shape, with 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 games (L-W-W-D-W). Italy are in good shape, with 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 games (W-L-W-D-W).

In the last 4 meetings, France won 2, Italy won 2 and 0 ended level. These games average 3.5 goals, with both teams scoring in 75% and over 2.5 goals in 75%.

Our goal model expects about 1 goals for France and 4 for Italy. It gives Italy the edge (5% home win, 8% draw, 83% away win), 82% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score. The most likely score is 0-3.

Our pick was Home or Draw. We also like Home Win, BTTS No, Under 3.5.

Published by

Football Analyst & Predictor · Rarabet

France vs Italy FAQs

What is the best prediction for France vs Italy?

Our top tip is Banker: Home or Draw.

Who will win France vs Italy?

Italy are favourites: our model gives France 5%, the draw 8% and Italy 83%.

Will both teams score?

Both teams scoring has a 59% chance in our model, and it happened in 75% of recent meetings.

How many goals are expected?

Our model expects 5 goals in total, with a 82% chance of over 2.5 goals.

When is France vs Italy?

Kick-off is on Friday, 2nd October 2026 at 19:45 at Stade de France, Paris.

Who is the referee?

Jesus Gil Manzano, Spain is in charge of this game.