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Toulouse vs Lyon Prediction, H2H & Stats

France: Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 33
Toulouse

Toulouse

10th in table
LDWDL
Full time
2:1
HT 1 - 0
Lyon

Lyon

4th in table
WWLLW
10' D. Methalie
26' Aron Dønnum
44' Dayann Methalie
45+1' Alexis Vossah
46' Mark McKenzie
56' Endrick
57' Charlie Cresswell
70' Roman Yaremchuk
71' C. Tolisso
78' W. Kamanzi
79' Aron Dønnum
79' Aron Dønnum
Sunday, 10 May 2026
Stadium de Toulouse, Toulouse
B. Dechepy

Head to head

Last 8 meetings
8games
1Toulouse wins
2Draws
5Lyon wins
2.8Goals per game
63%Both scored
75%Over 2.5
05 Oct 2025Ligue 1 Lyon 1 - 2 Toulouse
18 Jan 2025Ligue 1 Lyon 0 - 0 Toulouse
29 Sep 2024Ligue 1 Toulouse 1 - 2 Lyon
15 Mar 2024Ligue 1 Toulouse 2 - 3 Lyon
10 Dec 2023Ligue 1 Lyon 3 - 0 Toulouse
14 Apr 2023Ligue 1 Toulouse 1 - 2 Lyon
07 Oct 2022Ligue 1 Lyon 1 - 1 Toulouse
26 Jan 2020Ligue 1 Lyon 3 - 0 Toulouse

Ligue 1 table

#TeamPWDLGoalsGDPtsForm
1 Paris Saint Germain 342446 74:29 +45 76 LWWDW
2 Lens 342248 66:35 +31 70 WLWDD
3 Lille 341879 52:37 +15 61 LWDWD
4 Lyon 3418610 53:40 +13 60 LLWWW
5 Marseille 3418511 63:45 +18 59 WWLDL
6 Rennes 341789 59:50 +9 59 LWLWW
7 Monaco 3416612 60:54 +6 54 LLWDD
8 Strasbourg 3415811 58:47 +11 53 WWDLW
9 Lorient 34111211 48:51 -3 45 LWDLW
10 Toulouse 3312813 47:46 +1 44 WWDLL
11 Paris FC 34111112 47:50 -3 44 WLWLW
12 Stade Brestois 29 3410915 43:55 -12 39 DLLLD
13 Angers 349916 29:48 -19 36 DDLLD
14 Le Havre 3471413 32:44 -12 35 WLDDD
15 Auxerre 3481016 34:44 -10 34 WWWLD
16 Nice 3471116 37:60 -23 32 WDDLD
17 Nantes 335820 29:52 -23 23 LWLLD
18 Metz 343823 32:76 -44 17 DLLDL

Top scorers

Ligue 1
1 E. LepaulRennes 21goals 5assists 34apps
2 M. GreenwoodMarseille 16goals 7assists 32apps
3 J. PanichelliStrasbourg 16goals 1assists 27apps
4 F. BalogunMonaco 13goals 4assists 30apps
5 O. ÉdouardLens 12goals 3assists 29apps
6 W. SaïdLens 12goals 2assists 29apps
7 L. SinayokoAuxerre 12goals 4assists 32apps
8 P. ŠulcLyon 11goals 3assists 27apps
9 B. BarcolaParis Saint Germain 11goals 1assists 29apps
10 F. ThauvinLens 11goals 6assists 33apps

Recent form

2 W 4 D 4 L in the last 10
01 Nov 2026Ligue 1 Marseille 2 - 0 Toulouse L
25 Oct 2026Ligue 1 Toulouse 0 - 0 Estac Troyes D
16 Oct 2026Ligue 1 Le Mans 0 - 3 Toulouse W
10 Oct 2026Ligue 1 Monaco 2 - 2 Toulouse D
03 Oct 2026Friendlies Clubs Toulouse 2 - 3 PAU L
19 Sep 2026Ligue 1 Toulouse 3 - 2 Le Havre W
12 Sep 2026Ligue 1 Lorient 2 - 2 Toulouse D
03 Sep 2026Ligue 1 Toulouse 0 - 1 Lille L
29 Aug 2026Ligue 1 Stade Brestois 29 2 - 2 Toulouse D
22 Aug 2026Ligue 1 Toulouse 0 - 2 Lyon L
6 W 1 D 3 L in the last 10
01 Nov 2026Ligue 1 Lyon 2 - 0 Angers W
26 Oct 2026Ligue 1 Paris Saint Germain 2 - 0 Lyon L
22 Oct 2026UEFA Europa League 1899 Hoffenheim 3 - 0 Lyon L
18 Oct 2026Ligue 1 Lyon 2 - 1 Nice W
15 Oct 2026UEFA Europa League Lyon 3 - 2 Crystal Palace W
09 Oct 2026Ligue 1 Lens 2 - 1 Lyon L
19 Sep 2026Ligue 1 Lyon 4 - 0 Rennes W
16 Sep 2026UEFA Europa League Anderlecht 1 - 2 Lyon W
12 Sep 2026Ligue 1 Paris FC 0 - 0 Lyon D
04 Sep 2026Ligue 1 Lyon 3 - 1 Auxerre W

Who wins? Three ways to read it

1 · X · 2
Goal model
Form & stats
Bookmaker odds
Toulouse Draw Lyon
Value spotted: Toulouse win at 4.51 (model 36% vs market 22%)

Most likely scores

1-1 12.1%
0-1 8.9%
1-0 8.6%
1-2 8.5%
2-1 8.2%
0-0 6.4%

Expected goals: 1.35 Toulouse · 1.4 Lyon

Goal lines

Over 1.5 goals76%
Over 2.5 goals52%
Over 3.5 goals30%
Both teams score56%

Team comparison

Form Attack Defence Goal model Head to head Goals Overall
24%
Form
76%
39%
Attack
61%
28%
Defence
72%
41%
Goal model
59%
29%
Head to head
71%
36%
Goals
64%
32%
Overall
67%

Season numbers

Ligue 1 2025

When the goals come

8
0-15'
6
4
16-30'
9
7
31-45'
11
5
46-60'
10
6
61-75'
6
14
76-90'
11
5
0-15'
2
9
16-30'
2
8
31-45'
8
8
46-60'
4
5
61-75'
5
11
76-90'
12
Toulouse Lyon

Side by side

Toulouse Lyon
32 Played 32
11 Won 18
8 Drawn 6
13 Lost 8
1.4 Goals scored per game 1.6
1.4 Goals conceded per game 1.1
1.4 / 1.4 Scored per game (home / away) 1.9 / 1.4
9 Clean sheets 15
10 Failed to score 5
2 Longest winning run 7
5-1 Biggest win 3-0
0-4 Biggest defeat 2-3
4/4 Penalties scored 3/3

Toulouse vs Lyon: preview and prediction

Toulouse host Lyon in the France Ligue 1 (Regular Season - 33) on Sunday, 10th May 2026 at 20:00 at Stadium de Toulouse, Toulouse. Toulouse sit 10th in the table and Lyon 4th.

Toulouse have been inconsistent, with 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 games (L-D-W-D-L). Lyon are in good shape, with 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 games (W-W-L-L-W).

In the last 8 meetings, Toulouse won 1, Lyon won 5 and 2 ended level. These games average 2.8 goals, with both teams scoring in 63% and over 2.5 goals in 75%.

Our goal model expects about 1.35 goals for Toulouse and 1.4 for Lyon. It gives Lyon the edge (36% home win, 26% draw, 38% away win), 52% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score. The most likely score is 1-1.

Our pick was Away Win at odds of 1.81. We also like Over 2.5, BTTS Yes.

Published by

Football Analyst & Predictor · Rarabet

Toulouse vs Lyon FAQs

What is the best prediction for Toulouse vs Lyon?

Our top tip is Away Win: Away Win (1.81 odds).

Who will win Toulouse vs Lyon?

Lyon are favourites: our model gives Toulouse 36%, the draw 26% and Lyon 38%.

Will both teams score?

Both teams scoring has a 56% chance in our model, and it happened in 63% of recent meetings.

How many goals are expected?

Our model expects 2.8 goals in total, with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

When is Toulouse vs Lyon?

Kick-off is on Sunday, 10th May 2026 at 20:00 at Stadium de Toulouse, Toulouse.

Who is the referee?

B. Dechepy is in charge of this game.