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Spain vs Croatia Prediction, H2H & Stats

World: UEFA Nations League · League A - 2
Spain

Spain

1st in table
WWWWW
Full time
4:1
HT 2 - 1
Croatia

Croatia

3rd in table
LWLLL
2' Lamine Yamal
18' Marin Pongračić
28' Dion Drena Beljo
31' Marc Pubill
37' Petar Sučić
49' Alex Baena
54' Marco Pašalić
58' Josip Mišić
63' Lamine Yamal
89' Nico Williams
Tuesday, 29 September 2026
Estadio Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán, Seville
Serdar Gozubuyuk, Netherlands

Head to head

Last 7 meetings
7games
4Spain wins
1Draws
2Croatia wins
3.7Goals per game
43%Both scored
71%Over 2.5
15 Jun 2024Euro Championship Spain 3 - 0 Croatia
18 Jun 2023UEFA Nations League Croatia 0 - 0 Spain
28 Jun 2021Euro Championship Croatia 3 - 5 Spain
15 Nov 2018UEFA Nations League Croatia 3 - 2 Spain
11 Sep 2018UEFA Nations League Spain 6 - 0 Croatia
21 Jun 2016Euro Championship Croatia 2 - 1 Spain
18 Jun 2012Euro Championship Croatia 0 - 1 Spain

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGoalsGDPtsForm
1 Spain 4400 12:5 +7 12 WWWW
2 England 4301 14:3 +11 9 WWWL
3 Croatia 4103 4:14 -10 3 LLLW
4 Czechia 4004 2:10 -8 0 LLLL

Top scorers

UEFA Nations League
1 H. KaneEngland 6goals 1assists 4apps
2 M. OliseFrance 4goals 2assists 4apps
3 Lamine YamalSpain 4goals 1assists 4apps
4 L. WaltaFinland 4goals 1assists 4apps
5 V. GyökeresSweden 4goals 0assists 4apps
6 T. ParrottRep. Of Ireland 4goals 0assists 4apps
7 O. ÓskarssonIceland 3goals 2assists 4apps
8 Mikel MerinoSpain 3goals 1assists 4apps
9 Gonçalo RamosPortugal 3goals 1assists 4apps
10 João FélixPortugal 3goals 1assists 4apps

Recent form

10 W 0 D 0 L in the last 10
06 Oct 2026UEFA Nations League Croatia 1 - 2 Spain W
03 Oct 2026UEFA Nations League Spain 3 - 1 Czechia W
29 Sep 2026UEFA Nations League Spain 4 - 1 Croatia W
26 Sep 2026UEFA Nations League England 2 - 3 Spain W
19 Jul 2026World Cup Spain 1 - 0 Argentina W
14 Jul 2026World Cup France 0 - 2 Spain W
10 Jul 2026World Cup Spain 2 - 1 Belgium W
06 Jul 2026World Cup Portugal 0 - 1 Spain W
02 Jul 2026World Cup Spain 3 - 0 Austria W
27 Jun 2026World Cup Uruguay 0 - 1 Spain W
4 W 0 D 6 L in the last 10
06 Oct 2026UEFA Nations League Croatia 1 - 2 Spain L
03 Oct 2026UEFA Nations League Croatia 0 - 7 England L
29 Sep 2026UEFA Nations League Spain 4 - 1 Croatia L
26 Sep 2026UEFA Nations League Czechia 1 - 2 Croatia W
02 Jul 2026World Cup Portugal 2 - 1 Croatia L
27 Jun 2026World Cup Croatia 2 - 1 Ghana W
23 Jun 2026World Cup Panama 0 - 1 Croatia W
17 Jun 2026World Cup England 4 - 2 Croatia L
07 Jun 2026Friendlies Croatia 2 - 1 Slovenia W
02 Jun 2026Friendlies Croatia 0 - 2 Belgium L

Who wins? Three ways to read it

1 · X · 2
Goal model
Form & stats
Bookmaker odds
Spain Draw Croatia
Value spotted: Draw at 7.49 (model 21% vs market 13%) · Croatia win at 15.50 (model 40% vs market 6%)

Most likely scores

1-1 7.3%
1-2 7.3%
2-1 7.3%
2-2 7.3%
1-3 4.9%
2-3 4.9%

Expected goals: 2 Spain · 2 Croatia

Goal lines

Over 1.5 goals91%
Over 2.5 goals76%
Over 3.5 goals56%
Both teams score75%

Team comparison

Form Attack Defence Goal model Head to head Goals Overall
50%
Form
50%
60%
Attack
40%
33%
Defence
67%
0%
Goal model
0%
80%
Head to head
20%
74%
Goals
26%
59%
Overall
40%

Season numbers

UEFA Nations League 2026

When the goals come

1
0-15'
0
0
16-30'
0
0
31-45'
0
1
46-60'
1
1
61-75'
0
0
76-90'
1
0
0-15'
0
0
16-30'
0
2
31-45'
0
0
46-60'
1
0
61-75'
0
0
76-90'
0
Spain Croatia

Side by side

Spain Croatia
1 Played 1
1 Won 1
0 Drawn 0
0 Lost 0
3 Goals scored per game 2
2 Goals conceded per game 1
0 / 3 Scored per game (home / away) 0 / 2
0 Clean sheets 0
0 Failed to score 0
1 Longest winning run 1
2-3 Biggest win 1-2
- Biggest defeat -
0/0 Penalties scored 0/0

Spain vs Croatia: preview and prediction

Spain host Croatia in the World UEFA Nations League (League A - 2) on Tuesday, 29th September 2026 at 19:45 at Estadio Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán, Seville. Spain sit 1st in the table and Croatia 3rd.

Spain are flying, with 5 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 games (W-W-W-W-W). Croatia are struggling, with 1 win, 0 draws and 4 defeats in their last 5 games (L-W-L-L-L).

In the last 7 meetings, Spain won 4, Croatia won 2 and 1 ended level. These games average 3.7 goals, with both teams scoring in 43% and over 2.5 goals in 71%.

Our goal model expects about 2 goals for Spain and 2 for Croatia. It gives Spain the edge (40% home win, 21% draw, 40% away win), 76% for over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score. The most likely score is 1-1.

Our pick was Home Win. We also like Under 3.5.

Published by

Football Analyst & Predictor · Rarabet

Spain vs Croatia FAQs

What is the best prediction for Spain vs Croatia?

Our top tip is Banker: Home Win.

Who will win Spain vs Croatia?

It looks very close: our model gives Spain 40%, the draw 21% and Croatia 40%.

Will both teams score?

Both teams scoring has a 75% chance in our model, and it happened in 43% of recent meetings.

How many goals are expected?

Our model expects 4 goals in total, with a 76% chance of over 2.5 goals.

When is Spain vs Croatia?

Kick-off is on Tuesday, 29th September 2026 at 19:45 at Estadio Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán, Seville.

Who is the referee?

Serdar Gozubuyuk, Netherlands is in charge of this game.