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Newcastle vs Manchester City Prediction, H2H & Stats

England: FA Cup · Round of 16
Newcastle

Newcastle

LLWLL
Full time
1:3
HT 1 - 1
Manchester City

Manchester City

WWLDL
18' H. Barnes
39' Savinho
47' O. Marmoush
65' O. Marmoush
78' Joelinton
90' Yoane Wissa
Saturday, 7 March 2026
Newcastle
S. Barrott

Head to head

Last 9 meetings
9games
2Newcastle wins
1Draws
6Manchester City wins
2.9Goals per game
56%Both scored
56%Over 2.5
21 Feb 2026Premier League Manchester City 2 - 1 Newcastle
04 Feb 2026League Cup Manchester City 3 - 1 Newcastle
13 Jan 2026League Cup Newcastle 0 - 2 Manchester City
22 Nov 2025Premier League Newcastle 2 - 1 Manchester City
15 Feb 2025Premier League Manchester City 4 - 0 Newcastle
28 Sep 2024Premier League Newcastle 1 - 1 Manchester City
16 Mar 2024FA Cup Manchester City 2 - 0 Newcastle
13 Jan 2024Premier League Newcastle 2 - 3 Manchester City
27 Sep 2023League Cup Newcastle 1 - 0 Manchester City

Top scorers

FA Cup
1 Pedro NetoChelsea 4goals 2assists 6apps
2 Gabriel MartinelliArsenal 4goals 1assists 4apps
3 A. SemenyoManchester City 3goals 2assists 5apps
4 E. RiisBristol City 3goals 1assists 2apps
5 J. Strand LarsenWolves 3goals 1assists 1apps
6 L. ReedMansfield Town 3goals 0assists 5apps
7 T. ShadeBurton Albion 3goals 0assists 3apps
8 H. BarnesNewcastle 3goals 0assists 3apps
9 J. MakamaNorwich 3goals 0assists 1apps
10 E. HaalandManchester City 3goals 1assists 4apps

Recent form

4 W 1 D 5 L in the last 10
02 Nov 2026Premier League Newcastle 0 - 1 Everton L
29 Oct 2026League Cup Everton 3 - 1 Newcastle L
25 Oct 2026Premier League Crystal Palace 0 - 2 Newcastle W
17 Oct 2026Premier League Newcastle 0 - 1 Aston Villa L
12 Oct 2026Premier League Coventry 4 - 1 Newcastle L
19 Sep 2026Premier League Newcastle 2 - 1 Hull City W
14 Sep 2026Premier League Leeds 4 - 1 Newcastle L
08 Sep 2026League Cup Millwall 0 - 1 Newcastle W
05 Sep 2026Premier League Newcastle 2 - 2 Bournemouth D
29 Aug 2026Premier League Tottenham 0 - 2 Newcastle W
6 W 1 D 3 L in the last 10
31 Oct 2026Premier League Manchester City 0 - 1 Brighton L
28 Oct 2026League Cup Manchester City 2 - 2 Brighton D
24 Oct 2026Premier League Aston Villa 2 - 1 Manchester City L
20 Oct 2026UEFA Champions League Manchester City 5 - 1 AEK Athens FC W
17 Oct 2026Premier League Manchester City 3 - 2 Ipswich W
14 Oct 2026UEFA Champions League Manchester City 2 - 4 Paris Saint Germain L
11 Oct 2026Premier League Liverpool 0 - 3 Manchester City W
20 Sep 2026Premier League Manchester City 5 - 3 Sunderland W
17 Sep 2026League Cup Manchester City 5 - 0 Norwich W
13 Sep 2026Premier League Manchester United 0 - 1 Manchester City W

Who wins? Three ways to read it

1 · X · 2
Goal model
Form & stats
Bookmaker odds
Newcastle Draw Manchester City
Value spotted: Manchester City win at 2.11 (model 64% vs market 46%)

Most likely scores

2-3 5.2%
2-4 5.2%
1-3 4.6%
1-4 4.6%
2-5 4.2%
2-2 3.9%

Expected goals: 2.25 Newcastle · 4 Manchester City

Goal lines

Over 1.5 goals93%
Over 2.5 goals90%
Over 3.5 goals82%
Both teams score83%

Team comparison

Form Attack Defence Goal model Head to head Goals Overall
50%
Form
50%
37%
Attack
63%
20%
Defence
80%
0%
Goal model
0%
20%
Head to head
80%
25%
Goals
75%
30%
Overall
69%

Season numbers

FA Cup 2025

When the goals come

0
0-15'
1
0
16-30'
1
0
31-45'
0
1
46-60'
2
1
61-75'
1
3
76-90'
4
1
0-15'
1
0
16-30'
0
0
31-45'
2
0
46-60'
0
2
61-75'
0
0
76-90'
1
Newcastle Manchester City

Side by side

Newcastle Manchester City
2 Played 2
2 Won 2
0 Drawn 0
0 Lost 0
3.5 Goals scored per game 6
2 Goals conceded per game 0.5
4 / 3 Scored per game (home / away) 6 / 0
0 Clean sheets 1
0 Failed to score 0
2 Longest winning run 2
4-3 Biggest win 10-1
- Biggest defeat -
1/1 Penalties scored 0/0

Newcastle vs Manchester City: preview and prediction

Newcastle host Manchester City in the England FA Cup (Round of 16) on Saturday, 7th March 2026 at 21:00 at Newcastle.

Newcastle are struggling, with 1 win, 0 draws and 4 defeats in their last 5 games (L-L-W-L-L). Manchester City have been inconsistent, with 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 games (W-W-L-D-L).

In the last 9 meetings, Newcastle won 2, Manchester City won 6 and 1 ended level. These games average 2.9 goals, with both teams scoring in 56% and over 2.5 goals in 56%.

Our goal model expects about 2.25 goals for Newcastle and 4 for Manchester City. It gives Manchester City the edge (18% home win, 13% draw, 64% away win), 90% for over 2.5 goals and 83% for both teams to score. The most likely score is 2-3.

Our pick was Away Win at odds of 2.11. We also like Over 2.5, BTTS Yes.

Published by

Football Analyst & Predictor · Rarabet

Newcastle vs Manchester City FAQs

What is the best prediction for Newcastle vs Manchester City?

Our top tip is Away Win: Away Win (2.11 odds).

Who will win Newcastle vs Manchester City?

Manchester City are favourites: our model gives Newcastle 18%, the draw 13% and Manchester City 64%.

Will both teams score?

Both teams scoring has a 83% chance in our model, and it happened in 56% of recent meetings.

How many goals are expected?

Our model expects 6.3 goals in total, with a 90% chance of over 2.5 goals.

When is Newcastle vs Manchester City?

Kick-off is on Saturday, 7th March 2026 at 21:00 at Newcastle.

Who is the referee?

S. Barrott is in charge of this game.