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Liverpool vs Chelsea Prediction, H2H & Stats

England: League Cup · Round of 16
Liverpool

Liverpool

WWWDL
Full time
1:1
HT 1 - 1
Chelsea

Chelsea

WWLDW
11' Lewis Koumas
21' James McConnell
40' Morgan Rogers (Penalty)
43' Cody Gakpo (Penalty)
50' Josh Acheampong
73' Romeo Lavia
91' Alexis Mac Allister (Penalty)
92' Pedro Neto (Penalty)
93' Alexander Isak (Penalty)
94' Morgan Rogers (Penalty)
94' Cody Gakpo (Penalty)
95' Romeo Lavia (Penalty)
96' Florian Wirtz (Penalty)
99' Jordan Henderson (Penalty)
100' Bradley Barcola (Penalty)
101' Levi Colwill (Penalty)
103' Joe Gomez (Penalty)
Wednesday, 28 October 2026
Anfield, Liverpool
D. England

Head to head

Last 9 meetings
9games
3Liverpool wins
4Draws
2Chelsea wins
2.2Goals per game
67%Both scored
44%Over 2.5
09 May 2026Premier League Liverpool 1 - 1 Chelsea
04 Oct 2025Premier League Chelsea 2 - 1 Liverpool
04 May 2025Premier League Chelsea 3 - 1 Liverpool
20 Oct 2024Premier League Liverpool 2 - 1 Chelsea
25 Feb 2024League Cup Chelsea 0 - 1 Liverpool
31 Jan 2024Premier League Liverpool 4 - 1 Chelsea
13 Aug 2023Premier League Chelsea 1 - 1 Liverpool
04 Apr 2023Premier League Chelsea 0 - 0 Liverpool
21 Jan 2023Premier League Liverpool 0 - 0 Chelsea

Top scorers

League Cup
1 T. BarryEverton 4goals 2assists 3apps
2 H. LeonardPeterborough 4goals 0assists 3apps
3 R. ClearyBarnsley 3goals 1assists 3apps
4 C. EvansFleetwood Town 3goals 0assists 4apps
5 V. CastellanosWest Ham 3goals 0assists 3apps
6 C. WilsonBrentford 3goals 0assists 3apps
7 D. WelbeckChelsea 3goals 0assists 3apps
8 R. ChristieBournemouth 3goals 0assists 2apps
9 Y. SalechCardiff 3goals 1assists 2apps
10 J. BowenWest Ham 2goals 1assists 3apps

Recent form

6 W 2 D 2 L in the last 10
01 Nov 2026Premier League Liverpool 0 - 1 Arsenal L
28 Oct 2026League Cup Liverpool 1 - 1 Chelsea D
25 Oct 2026Premier League Liverpool 2 - 0 Brighton W
20 Oct 2026UEFA Champions League Liverpool 4 - 3 Villarreal W
17 Oct 2026Premier League Brentford 1 - 2 Liverpool W
14 Oct 2026UEFA Champions League Lask Linz 3 - 6 Liverpool W
11 Oct 2026Premier League Liverpool 0 - 3 Manchester City L
20 Sep 2026Premier League Bournemouth 0 - 1 Liverpool W
15 Sep 2026League Cup Liverpool 3 - 1 Tottenham W
12 Sep 2026Premier League Liverpool 0 - 0 Fulham D
5 W 2 D 3 L in the last 10
31 Oct 2026Premier League Chelsea 2 - 0 Manchester United W
28 Oct 2026League Cup Liverpool 1 - 1 Chelsea D
24 Oct 2026Premier League Chelsea 0 - 2 Tottenham L
17 Oct 2026Premier League Everton 0 - 2 Chelsea W
10 Oct 2026Premier League Chelsea 5 - 1 Bournemouth W
18 Sep 2026Premier League Brentford 3 - 0 Chelsea L
12 Sep 2026Premier League Chelsea 2 - 2 Hull City D
09 Sep 2026League Cup Chelsea 6 - 3 Leeds W
06 Sep 2026Premier League Arsenal 2 - 1 Chelsea L
30 Aug 2026Premier League Chelsea 4 - 3 Brighton W

Who wins? Three ways to read it

1 · X · 2
Goal model
Form & stats
Bookmaker odds
Liverpool Draw Chelsea
Value spotted: Chelsea win at 2.81 (model 45% vs market 34%)

Most likely scores

2-2 6.8%
1-2 6.1%
2-3 5.7%
2-1 5.5%
3-2 5.1%
1-3 5.1%

Expected goals: 2.25 Liverpool · 2.5 Chelsea

Goal lines

Over 1.5 goals94%
Over 2.5 goals85%
Over 3.5 goals69%
Both teams score82%

Team comparison

Form Attack Defence Goal model Head to head Goals Overall
33%
Form
67%
27%
Attack
73%
75%
Defence
25%
0%
Goal model
0%
50%
Head to head
50%
46%
Goals
54%
46%
Overall
53%

Season numbers

League Cup 2026

When the goals come

0
0-15'
0
1
16-30'
0
0
31-45'
0
1
46-60'
4
0
61-75'
1
0
76-90'
1
0
0-15'
0
0
16-30'
1
0
31-45'
0
0
46-60'
1
1
61-75'
1
0
76-90'
1
Liverpool Chelsea

Side by side

Liverpool Chelsea
1 Played 2
1 Won 2
0 Drawn 0
0 Lost 0
3 Goals scored per game 4
1 Goals conceded per game 1.5
3 / 0 Scored per game (home / away) 4 / 0
0 Clean sheets 1
0 Failed to score 0
1 Longest winning run 2
3-1 Biggest win 6-3
- Biggest defeat -
0/0 Penalties scored 1/1

Liverpool vs Chelsea: preview and prediction

Liverpool host Chelsea in the England League Cup (Round of 16) on Wednesday, 28th October 2026 at 21:00 at Anfield, Liverpool.

Liverpool are in good shape, with 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 games (W-W-W-D-L). Chelsea are in good shape, with 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 games (W-W-L-D-W).

In the last 9 meetings, Liverpool won 3, Chelsea won 2 and 4 ended level. These games average 2.2 goals, with both teams scoring in 67% and over 2.5 goals in 44%.

Our goal model expects about 2.25 goals for Liverpool and 2.5 for Chelsea. It gives Chelsea the edge (36% home win, 19% draw, 45% away win), 85% for over 2.5 goals and 82% for both teams to score. The most likely score is 2-2.

Our pick was Over 2.5 at odds of 1.44. We also like BTTS Yes, Over 3.5, Draw.

Published by

Football Analyst & Predictor · Rarabet

Liverpool vs Chelsea FAQs

What is the best prediction for Liverpool vs Chelsea?

Our top tip is Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5 (1.44 odds).

Who will win Liverpool vs Chelsea?

Chelsea are favourites: our model gives Liverpool 36%, the draw 19% and Chelsea 45%.

Will both teams score?

Both teams scoring has a 82% chance in our model, and it happened in 67% of recent meetings.

How many goals are expected?

Our model expects 4.8 goals in total, with a 85% chance of over 2.5 goals.

When is Liverpool vs Chelsea?

Kick-off is on Wednesday, 28th October 2026 at 21:00 at Anfield, Liverpool.

Who is the referee?

D. England is in charge of this game.