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Atletico-MG vs Santos Prediction, H2H & Stats

World: CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Quarter-finals
Atletico-MG

Atletico-MG

1st in table
WDWWW
Full time
4:2
HT 3 - 1
Santos

Santos

WWDLW
1' Bernard Anício Caldeira Duarte
20' Reinier Jesus Carvalho
28' Lyanco Evangelista Silveira Neves Vojnović (Own Goal)
38' Rodinei
41' Reinier Jesus Carvalho
45+4' Luan Peres
72' Gabriel Barbosa
90+2' Tomás Cuello
91' Gustavo Scarpa (Penalty)
93' Igor Gomes (Penalty)
94' Gabriel Bontempo (Penalty)
96' Thiago Borbas (Penalty)
Wednesday, 16 September 2026
MRV Arena, Belo Horizonte
F. Tello

Head to head

Last 8 meetings
8games
2Atletico-MG wins
3Draws
3Santos wins
1.8Goals per game
38%Both scored
13%Over 2.5
09 Sep 2026CONMEBOL Sudamericana Santos 2 - 0 Atletico-MG
11 Apr 2026Serie A Santos 1 - 0 Atletico-MG
14 Sep 2025Serie A Atletico-MG 1 - 1 Santos
17 Apr 2025Serie A Santos 2 - 0 Atletico-MG
27 Aug 2023Serie A Atletico-MG 2 - 0 Santos
23 Apr 2023Serie A Santos 0 - 0 Atletico-MG
06 Oct 2022Serie A Santos 1 - 2 Atletico-MG
11 Jun 2022Serie A Atletico-MG 1 - 1 Santos

CONMEBOL Sudamericana table

#TeamPWDLGoalsGDPtsForm
1 Atletico-MG 6312 8:6 +2 10 WWDLW
2 Cienciano 6222 5:7 -2 8 DLLWW
3 Juventud 6141 10:7 +3 7 DDDWL
4 Puerto Cabello 6213 6:9 -3 7 LDWLL

Top scorers

CONMEBOL Sudamericana
1 S. RodríguezAtletico Torque 7goals 1assists 12apps
2 Gabriel BarbosaSantos 6goals 4assists 9apps
3 AdsonVasco DA Gama 5goals 3assists 10apps
4 BernardAtletico-MG 5goals 0assists 11apps
5 R. ContrerasMillonarios 5goals 0assists 7apps
6 C. GarcésCienciano 4goals 3assists 12apps
7 F. GonzálezO'Higgins 3goals 4assists 8apps
8 T. CuelloAtletico-MG 3goals 4assists 7apps
9 A. HohbergCienciano 3goals 3assists 12apps
10 Gabriel BontempoSantos 3goals 1assists 11apps

Recent form

6 W 2 D 2 L in the last 10
17 Oct 2026Serie A Atletico-MG 1 - 0 Coritiba W
14 Oct 2026CONMEBOL Sudamericana Atletico-MG 3 - 0 Atletico Torque W
11 Oct 2026Serie A Atletico-MG 2 - 1 Santos W
08 Oct 2026Serie A Atletico Paranaense 2 - 2 Atletico-MG D
03 Oct 2026Serie A Atletico-MG 1 - 0 RB Bragantino W
19 Sep 2026Serie A Atletico-MG 1 - 1 Chapecoense-sc D
16 Sep 2026CONMEBOL Sudamericana Atletico-MG 4 - 2 Santos W
12 Sep 2026Serie A Atletico-MG 3 - 1 Fluminense W
09 Sep 2026CONMEBOL Sudamericana Santos 2 - 0 Atletico-MG L
05 Sep 2026Serie A Sao Paulo 2 - 0 Atletico-MG L
6 W 2 D 2 L in the last 10
18 Oct 2026Serie A Fluminense 1 - 2 Santos W
11 Oct 2026Serie A Atletico-MG 2 - 1 Santos L
08 Oct 2026Serie A Santos 2 - 2 Flamengo D
02 Oct 2026Serie A Sao Paulo 1 - 2 Santos W
19 Sep 2026Serie A Remo 1 - 2 Santos W
16 Sep 2026CONMEBOL Sudamericana Atletico-MG 4 - 2 Santos L
13 Sep 2026Serie A Santos 2 - 1 Cruzeiro W
09 Sep 2026CONMEBOL Sudamericana Santos 2 - 0 Atletico-MG W
06 Sep 2026Serie A Internacional 2 - 3 Santos W
03 Sep 2026Copa Do Brasil Santos 0 - 0 Palmeiras D

Who wins? Three ways to read it

1 · X · 2
Goal model
Form & stats
Bookmaker odds
Atletico-MG Draw Santos
Value spotted: Santos win at 4.53 (model 29% vs market 22%)

Most likely scores

1-0 13%
1-1 13%
0-0 10%
0-1 10%
2-0 8.5%
2-1 8.5%

Expected goals: 1.3 Atletico-MG · 1 Santos

Goal lines

Over 1.5 goals67%
Over 2.5 goals40%
Over 3.5 goals20%
Both teams score46%

Team comparison

Form Attack Defence Goal model Head to head Goals Overall
43%
Form
57%
33%
Attack
67%
50%
Defence
50%
53%
Goal model
47%
29%
Head to head
71%
33%
Goals
67%
40%
Overall
59%

Season numbers

CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

When the goals come

0
0-15'
3
2
16-30'
0
3
31-45'
7
1
46-60'
3
2
61-75'
3
3
76-90'
3
0
0-15'
2
2
16-30'
1
3
31-45'
1
1
46-60'
2
1
61-75'
2
3
76-90'
3
Atletico-MG Santos

Side by side

Atletico-MG Santos
9 Played 11
4 Won 5
2 Drawn 5
3 Lost 1
1.2 Goals scored per game 1.8
1.1 Goals conceded per game 0.9
1.8 / 0.8 Scored per game (home / away) 2.3 / 1.2
3 Clean sheets 3
2 Failed to score 2
3 Longest winning run 4
2-0 Biggest win 3-0
2-0 Biggest defeat 1-0
0/0 Penalties scored 0/0

Atletico-MG vs Santos: preview and prediction

Atletico-MG host Santos in the World CONMEBOL Sudamericana (Quarter-finals) on Wednesday, 16th September 2026 at 23:00 at MRV Arena, Belo Horizonte.

Atletico-MG are flying, with 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in their last 5 games (W-D-W-W-W). Santos are in good shape, with 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 games (W-W-D-L-W).

In the last 8 meetings, Atletico-MG won 2, Santos won 3 and 3 ended level. These games average 1.8 goals, with both teams scoring in 38% and over 2.5 goals in 13%.

Our goal model expects about 1.3 goals for Atletico-MG and 1 for Santos. It gives Atletico-MG the edge (43% home win, 28% draw, 29% away win), 40% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score. The most likely score is 1-0.

Our pick was Away Win at odds of 4.53. We also like Over 1.5.

Published by

Football Analyst & Predictor · Rarabet

Atletico-MG vs Santos FAQs

What is the best prediction for Atletico-MG vs Santos?

Our top tip is Away Win: Away Win (4.53 odds).

Who will win Atletico-MG vs Santos?

Atletico-MG are favourites: our model gives Atletico-MG 43%, the draw 28% and Santos 29%.

Will both teams score?

Both teams scoring has a 46% chance in our model, and it happened in 38% of recent meetings.

How many goals are expected?

Our model expects 2.3 goals in total, with a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals.

When is Atletico-MG vs Santos?

Kick-off is on Wednesday, 16th September 2026 at 23:00 at MRV Arena, Belo Horizonte.

Who is the referee?

F. Tello is in charge of this game.