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Aston Villa vs Manchester City Prediction, H2H & Stats

England: Premier League · Regular Season - 8
Aston Villa

Aston Villa

12th in table
WDWWW
Kick-off
12:30
Sat, 24 Oct 2026
Manchester City

Manchester City

1st in table
WWLWW
Saturday, 24 October 2026
Villa Park, Birmingham
Peter Bankes

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
10games
4Aston Villa wins
1Draws
5Manchester City wins
3Goals per game
80%Both scored
70%Over 2.5
24 May 2026Premier League Manchester City 1 - 2 Aston Villa
26 Oct 2025Premier League Aston Villa 1 - 0 Manchester City
22 Apr 2025Premier League Manchester City 2 - 1 Aston Villa
21 Dec 2024Premier League Aston Villa 2 - 1 Manchester City
03 Apr 2024Premier League Manchester City 4 - 1 Aston Villa
06 Dec 2023Premier League Aston Villa 1 - 0 Manchester City
12 Feb 2023Premier League Manchester City 3 - 1 Aston Villa
03 Sep 2022Premier League Aston Villa 1 - 1 Manchester City
22 May 2022Premier League Manchester City 3 - 2 Aston Villa
01 Dec 2021Premier League Aston Villa 1 - 2 Manchester City

Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGoalsGDPtsForm
1 Manchester City 7700 19:7 +12 21 WWWWW
2 Arsenal 7601 11:5 +6 18 WWLWW
3 Brighton 7511 23:5 +18 16 WWWWD
4 Chelsea 7412 17:13 +4 13 WWLDL
5 Liverpool 7331 9:8 +1 12 WLWDW
6 Brentford 7241 13:8 +5 10 LDWDD
7 Leeds 7241 9:6 +3 10 DLDWD
8 Everton 7241 8:7 +1 10 LDWDD
9 Ipswich 8314 12:16 -4 10 DLWLW
10 Hull City 7232 8:7 +1 9 LDLDD
11 Newcastle 7223 10:14 -4 8 LLWLD
12 Aston Villa 7223 7:11 -4 8 WDWLD
13 Manchester United 7142 10:10 0 7 DDDLD
14 Crystal Palace 7214 9:17 -8 7 LWDLW
15 Bournemouth 7133 9:13 -4 6 WLLDD
16 Tottenham 7133 6:10 -4 6 WDLDD
17 Nottingham Forest 8134 6:10 -4 6 DLLLW
18 Coventry 7205 6:14 -8 6 LWWLL
19 Fulham 7124 7:10 -3 5 WLDDL
20 Sunderland 7115 6:14 -8 4 LLLLD

Top scorers

Premier League
1 E. HaalandManchester City 8goals 0assists 7apps
2 João PedroChelsea 5goals 3assists 6apps
3 A. IsakLiverpool 5goals 0assists 6apps
4 R. CherkiManchester City 4goals 2assists 6apps
5 M. RogersChelsea 4goals 1assists 7apps
6 M. TavernierBournemouth 4goals 0assists 7apps
7 B. MbeumoManchester United 4goals 0assists 7apps
8 C. KostoulasBrighton 3goals 2assists 7apps
9 M. BelloumiHull City 3goals 2assists 7apps
10 Pedro NetoChelsea 3goals 1assists 7apps

Recent form

7 W 2 D 1 L in the last 10
21 Oct 2026UEFA Champions League Aston Villa 3 - 1 Viking W
17 Oct 2026Premier League Newcastle 0 - 1 Aston Villa W
14 Oct 2026UEFA Champions League Aston Villa 6 - 0 Fenerbahçe W
10 Oct 2026Premier League Aston Villa 2 - 2 Brentford D
02 Oct 2026Friendlies Clubs Sevilla 1 - 3 Aston Villa W
19 Sep 2026Premier League Tottenham 2 - 3 Aston Villa W
16 Sep 2026League Cup Coventry 1 - 3 Aston Villa W
12 Sep 2026Premier League Aston Villa 1 - 2 Nottingham Forest L
08 Sep 2026UEFA Champions League Club Brugge KV 2 - 3 Aston Villa W
05 Sep 2026Premier League Hull City 0 - 0 Aston Villa D
9 W 0 D 1 L in the last 10
20 Oct 2026UEFA Champions League Manchester City 5 - 1 AEK Athens FC W
17 Oct 2026Premier League Manchester City 3 - 2 Ipswich W
14 Oct 2026UEFA Champions League Manchester City 2 - 4 Paris Saint Germain L
11 Oct 2026Premier League Liverpool 0 - 3 Manchester City W
20 Sep 2026Premier League Manchester City 5 - 3 Sunderland W
17 Sep 2026League Cup Manchester City 5 - 0 Norwich W
13 Sep 2026Premier League Manchester United 0 - 1 Manchester City W
08 Sep 2026UEFA Champions League FC Porto 0 - 2 Manchester City W
05 Sep 2026Premier League Manchester City 1 - 0 Coventry W
28 Aug 2026Premier League Crystal Palace 1 - 4 Manchester City W

Who wins? Three ways to read it

1 · X · 2
Goal model
Form & stats
Bookmaker odds
Aston Villa Draw Manchester City
Value spotted: Manchester City win at 1.65 (model 73% vs market 58%)

Most likely scores

0-2 14%
0-1 12.7%
0-3 10.3%
1-2 9.1%
1-1 8.3%
1-3 6.7%

Expected goals: 0.65 Aston Villa · 2.2 Manchester City

Goal lines

Over 1.5 goals78%
Over 2.5 goals54%
Over 3.5 goals32%
Both teams score42%

Team comparison

Form Attack Defence Goal model Head to head Goals Overall
35%
Form
65%
35%
Attack
65%
45%
Defence
55%
6%
Goal model
94%
60%
Head to head
40%
47%
Goals
53%
38%
Overall
62%

Season numbers

Premier League 2026

When the goals come

2
0-15'
1
0
16-30'
4
2
31-45'
2
0
46-60'
5
2
61-75'
3
2
76-90'
5
1
0-15'
1
2
16-30'
2
1
31-45'
1
3
46-60'
1
0
61-75'
0
4
76-90'
1
Aston Villa Manchester City

Side by side

Aston Villa Manchester City
7 Played 7
2 Won 7
2 Drawn 0
3 Lost 0
1 Goals scored per game 2.7
1.6 Goals conceded per game 1
1 / 1 Scored per game (home / away) 2.8 / 2.7
2 Clean sheets 3
3 Failed to score 0
1 Longest winning run 7
2-3 Biggest win 5-3
1-2 Biggest defeat -
0/0 Penalties scored 0/0

What comes next

Aston Villa
Manchester City (H) 24 Oct
Bournemouth (A) 28 Oct
Fulham (H) 31 Oct
Barcelona (A) 03 Nov
Manchester United (A) 08 Nov
Manchester City
Aston Villa (A) 24 Oct
Brighton (H) 28 Oct
Brighton (H) 31 Oct
RB Leipzig (A) 04 Nov
Nottingham Forest (A) 07 Nov
Bottom thirdMid tableTop third

Missing players

Aston Villa
+ A. Onana Knee Injury
+ M. Ruggeri Muscle Injury
+ A. Wan-Bissaka Muscle Injury
? J. Manzambi Calf Injury
Manchester City
+ A. Semenyo Knee Injury
? M. Kovacic Injury
? M. Nunes Knock
? N. O'Reilly Back Injury

Betting markets

Odds: Bet365
Aston Villa 5.00 20% implied
Draw 4.20 24% implied
Manchester City 1.65 61% implied Our tip
Aston Villa 3.75 27% implied
Manchester City 1.25 80% implied Our tip
Over 0.5 1.02 98% implied
Under 0.5 17.00 6% implied
Over 1.5 1.14 88% implied
Under 1.5 5.50 18% implied
Over 2.5 1.50 67% implied
Under 2.5 2.62 38% implied
Over 3.5 2.20 45% implied
Under 3.5 1.67 60% implied
Over 4.5 4.00 25% implied
Under 4.5 1.25 80% implied
Aston Villa/Draw 17.00 6% implied
Aston Villa/Manchester City 19.00 5% implied
Draw/Manchester City 5.00 20% implied
Draw/Draw 7.50 13% implied
Aston Villa/Aston Villa 8.50 12% implied
Draw/Aston Villa 12.00 8% implied
Manchester City/Aston Villa 34.00 3% implied
Manchester City/Draw 15.00 7% implied
Manchester City/Manchester City 2.50 40% implied
Yes 1.53 65% implied
No 2.38 42% implied
1:1 9.00 11% implied
1:2 9.50 11% implied
0:1 11.00 9% implied
0:2 11.00 9% implied
2:2 13.00 8% implied
1:3 13.00 8% implied
0:3 15.00 7% implied
2:1 19.00 5% implied
Aston Villa/Draw 2.20 45% implied
Aston Villa/Manchester City 1.22 82% implied
Draw/Manchester City 1.17 85% implied
Aston Villa 4.75 21% implied
Draw 2.60 38% implied
Manchester City 2.10 48% implied Our tip

Odds can change. Implied probability = 100 / odds and includes the bookmaker margin. 18+ Gamble responsibly.

Aston Villa vs Manchester City: preview and prediction

Aston Villa host Manchester City in the England Premier League (Regular Season - 8) on Saturday, 24th October 2026 at 12:30 at Villa Park, Birmingham. Aston Villa sit 12th in the table and Manchester City 1st.

Aston Villa are flying, with 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in their last 5 games (W-D-W-W-W). Manchester City are flying, with 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 games (W-W-L-W-W).

In the last 10 meetings, Aston Villa won 4, Manchester City won 5 and 1 ended level. These games average 3 goals, with both teams scoring in 80% and over 2.5 goals in 70%.

Our goal model expects about 0.65 goals for Aston Villa and 2.2 for Manchester City. It gives Manchester City the edge (10% home win, 18% draw, 73% away win), 54% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score. The most likely score is 0-2.

Verdict: our pick is Away Win. We also like Draw No Bet: Away, Away Wins Either Half.

Published by

Football Analyst & Predictor · Rarabet

Aston Villa vs Manchester City FAQs

What is the best prediction for Aston Villa vs Manchester City?

Our top tip is Super Single: Away Win.

Who will win Aston Villa vs Manchester City?

Manchester City are favourites: our model gives Aston Villa 10%, the draw 18% and Manchester City 73%.

Will both teams score?

Both teams scoring has a 42% chance in our model, and it happened in 80% of recent meetings.

How many goals are expected?

Our model expects 2.9 goals in total, with a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals.

When is Aston Villa vs Manchester City?

Kick-off is on Saturday, 24th October 2026 at 12:30 at Villa Park, Birmingham.

Who is the referee?

Peter Bankes is in charge of this game.