RaraBet
Home Pricing About Partners News Contact Us
Register Login

USA vs Canada Prediction, H2H & Stats

World: Friendlies · Friendly International
USA

USA

LWWWW
Full time
1:0
HT 1 - 0
Canada

Canada

WLWWL
29' J. Ellis
31' Tani Oluwaseyi
40' Giovanni Reyna
58' Jonathan David
71' Malik Tillman
Wednesday, 7 October 2026
Allianz Field, St. Paul
Steven Madrigal, Costa Rica

Head to head

Last 9 meetings
9games
3USA wins
2Draws
4Canada wins
2.7Goals per game
56%Both scored
44%Over 2.5
22 Mar 2025CONCACAF Nations League Canada 2 - 1 USA
07 Sep 2024Friendlies USA 1 - 2 Canada
09 Jul 2023CONCACAF Gold Cup USA 2 - 2 Canada
19 Jun 2023CONCACAF Nations League Canada 0 - 2 USA
30 Jan 2022World Cup - Qualification CONCACAF Canada 2 - 0 USA
06 Sep 2021World Cup - Qualification CONCACAF USA 1 - 1 Canada
18 Jul 2021CONCACAF Gold Cup USA 1 - 0 Canada
16 Nov 2019CONCACAF Nations League USA 4 - 1 Canada
15 Oct 2019CONCACAF Nations League Canada 2 - 0 USA

Top scorers

Friendlies
1 M. OsmajićMontenegro 5goals 0assists 4apps
2 Son Heung-MinSouth Korea 5goals 0assists 8apps
3 L. SadulaevRussia 4goals 1assists 7apps
4 J. VélezPeru 4goals 0assists 8apps
5 D. LukebakioBelgium 4goals 0assists 3apps
6 F. WirtzGermany 3goals 2assists 4apps
7 N. PazArgentina 3goals 1assists 6apps
8 M. AraújoUruguay 3goals 1assists 5apps
9 J. HallUSA 3goals 1assists 4apps
10 M. OliseFrance 3goals 1assists 4apps

Recent form

7 W 0 D 3 L in the last 10
07 Oct 2026Friendlies USA 1 - 0 Canada W
04 Oct 2026Friendlies USA 3 - 0 Mexico W
30 Sep 2026Friendlies USA 4 - 2 Chile W
26 Sep 2026Friendlies USA 4 - 1 Peru W
07 Jul 2026World Cup USA 1 - 4 Belgium L
02 Jul 2026World Cup USA 2 - 0 Bosnia & Herzegovina W
26 Jun 2026World Cup Türkiye 3 - 2 USA L
19 Jun 2026World Cup USA 2 - 0 Australia W
13 Jun 2026World Cup USA 4 - 1 Paraguay W
06 Jun 2026Friendlies USA 1 - 2 Germany L
5 W 2 D 3 L in the last 10
07 Oct 2026Friendlies USA 1 - 0 Canada L
03 Oct 2026Friendlies Canada 2 - 0 Peru W
26 Sep 2026Friendlies Canada 1 - 0 Chile W
04 Jul 2026World Cup Canada 0 - 3 Morocco L
28 Jun 2026World Cup South Africa 0 - 1 Canada W
24 Jun 2026World Cup Switzerland 2 - 1 Canada L
18 Jun 2026World Cup Canada 6 - 0 Qatar W
12 Jun 2026World Cup Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia & Herzegovina D
05 Jun 2026Friendlies Canada 1 - 1 Rep. Of Ireland D
02 Jun 2026Friendlies Canada 2 - 0 Uzbekistan W

Who wins? Three ways to read it

1 · X · 2
Goal model
Form & stats
Bookmaker odds
USA Draw Canada
Value spotted: Canada win at 4.07 (model 44% vs market 24%)

Most likely scores

1-1 11.4%
1-2 9.2%
0-1 8.8%
2-1 7.4%
1-0 7.2%
0-2 7%

Expected goals: 1.3 USA · 1.6 Canada

Goal lines

Over 1.5 goals79%
Over 2.5 goals55%
Over 3.5 goals33%
Both teams score58%

Team comparison

Form Attack Defence Goal model Head to head Goals Overall
52%
Form
48%
71%
Attack
29%
13%
Defence
88%
0%
Goal model
0%
29%
Head to head
71%
43%
Goals
57%
41%
Overall
58%

Season numbers

Friendlies 2026

When the goals come

2
0-15'
1
2
16-30'
1
3
31-45'
1
1
46-60'
1
5
61-75'
3
4
76-90'
1
2
0-15'
1
0
16-30'
2
4
31-45'
0
6
46-60'
1
1
61-75'
0
1
76-90'
0
USA Canada

Side by side

USA Canada
7 Played 7
4 Won 4
0 Drawn 3
3 Lost 0
2.4 Goals scored per game 1.3
2 Goals conceded per game 0.4
2.4 / 0 Scored per game (home / away) 1.3 / 0
1 Clean sheets 5
1 Failed to score 1
1 Longest winning run 1
4-1 Biggest win 2-0
2-5 Biggest defeat -
1/1 Penalties scored 2/2

USA vs Canada: preview and prediction

USA host Canada in the World Friendlies (Friendly International) on Wednesday, 7th October 2026 at 01:00 at Allianz Field, St. Paul.

USA are flying, with 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 games (L-W-W-W-W). Canada are in good shape, with 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 games (W-L-W-W-L).

In the last 9 meetings, USA won 3, Canada won 4 and 2 ended level. These games average 2.7 goals, with both teams scoring in 56% and over 2.5 goals in 44%.

Our goal model expects about 1.3 goals for USA and 1.6 for Canada. It gives Canada the edge (31% home win, 24% draw, 44% away win), 55% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score. The most likely score is 1-1.

Our pick was Home Win at odds of 1.95. We also like Over 2.5, Draw.

Published by

Football Analyst & Predictor · Rarabet

USA vs Canada FAQs

What is the best prediction for USA vs Canada?

Our top tip is Home Win: Home Win (1.95 odds).

Who will win USA vs Canada?

Canada are favourites: our model gives USA 31%, the draw 24% and Canada 44%.

Will both teams score?

Both teams scoring has a 58% chance in our model, and it happened in 56% of recent meetings.

How many goals are expected?

Our model expects 2.9 goals in total, with a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals.

When is USA vs Canada?

Kick-off is on Wednesday, 7th October 2026 at 01:00 at Allianz Field, St. Paul.

Who is the referee?

Steven Madrigal, Costa Rica is in charge of this game.