RaraBet
Home Pricing About Partners News Contact Us
Register Login

Toluca vs Necaxa Prediction, H2H & Stats

Mexico: Liga MX · Apertura - 3
Toluca

Toluca

5th in table
LLDDD
Full time
3:1
HT 2 - 1
Necaxa

Necaxa

17th in table
LDLLD
29' I. Lopez
42' J. Carranza
45+7' Agustín Oliveros
45+4' Raúl Martínez
45+6' Julián Carranza
45' E. del Villar
57' L. Jimenez (Own Goal)
80' Agustín Oliveros
80' Agustín Oliveros
90+7' Franco Romero
90+7' Juan Valencia
Monday, 3 August 2026
Estadio Nemesio Diez, Toluca
Jesus Rafael Lopez Valle, Mexico

Head to head

Last 9 meetings
9games
7Toluca wins
2Draws
0Necaxa wins
3.6Goals per game
56%Both scored
78%Over 2.5
22 Feb 2026Liga MX Necaxa 0 - 3 Toluca
13 Jul 2025Liga MX Toluca 3 - 1 Necaxa
08 Mar 2025Liga MX Toluca 5 - 2 Necaxa
28 Oct 2024Liga MX Necaxa 1 - 3 Toluca
10 Feb 2024Liga MX Necaxa 3 - 3 Toluca
02 Jul 2023Liga MX Toluca 0 - 0 Necaxa
30 Apr 2023Liga MX Toluca 3 - 0 Necaxa
27 Dec 2022Copa por México Toluca 1 - 0 Necaxa
02 Jul 2022Liga MX Necaxa 1 - 3 Toluca

Liga MX table

#TeamPWDLGoalsGDPtsForm
1 Club America 14842 34:19 +15 28 DLWWD
2 Cruz Azul 14824 32:23 +9 26 WWWDD
3 Guadalajara Chivas 14752 21:12 +9 26 WWDDL
4 Atlas 14734 25:26 -1 24 WLWDW
5 Toluca 14653 29:19 +10 23 DDDLD
6 Leon 14644 21:18 +3 22 DWLDW
7 Club Tijuana 14563 22:18 +4 21 DWDDD
8 Monterrey 13625 23:18 +5 20 LWWDL
9 Club Queretaro 13625 17:18 -1 20 LLLWW
10 Santos Laguna 14617 20:20 0 19 LWWWW
11 Atletico San Luis 14545 19:22 -3 19 WWDLW
12 U.N.A.M. - Pumas 14455 20:23 -3 17 DLWDL
13 CF Pachuca 14446 22:19 +3 16 WLLDL
14 Puebla 14446 16:21 -5 16 LLDDL
15 Tigres UANL 14365 15:19 -4 15 DLDWW
16 Atlante FC 14356 14:20 -6 14 LWLLW
17 Necaxa 14248 16:27 -11 10 DLLDL
18 FC Juarez 141211 9:33 -24 5 DLLDL

Top scorers

Liga MX
1 S. RondónCF Pachuca 13goals 1assists 14apps
2 J. BrunettaTigres UANL 8goals 4assists 13apps
3 JuninhoU.N.A.M. - Pumas 8goals 1assists 14apps
4 H. MartínClub America 8goals 3assists 12apps
5 F. ViñasToluca 7goals 0assists 11apps
6 J. CarranzaNecaxa 7goals 2assists 13apps
7 L. OcamposMonterrey 6goals 3assists 11apps
8 Ó. EstupiñánFC Juarez 6goals 0assists 14apps
9 D. RossiMonterrey 5goals 3assists 12apps
10 B. RodríguezClub America 5goals 3assists 10apps

Recent form

3 W 4 D 3 L in the last 10
24 Oct 2026Liga MX Leon 1 - 1 Toluca D
22 Oct 2026Liga MX Toluca 2 - 2 Club Tijuana D
18 Oct 2026Liga MX Toluca 1 - 1 Atletico San Luis D
10 Oct 2026Liga MX Tigres UANL 3 - 2 Toluca L
03 Oct 2026Friendlies Clubs Monterrey 2 - 1 Toluca L
26 Sep 2026Liga MX Cruz Azul 3 - 3 Toluca D
21 Sep 2026Liga MX Toluca 2 - 3 Santos Laguna L
16 Sep 2026Liga MX Puebla 0 - 1 Toluca W
12 Sep 2026Liga MX Toluca 5 - 2 Atlas W
07 Sep 2026Leagues Cup Toluca 2 - 0 Monterrey W
0 W 4 D 6 L in the last 10
24 Oct 2026Liga MX Necaxa 1 - 1 FC Juarez D
21 Oct 2026Liga MX Guadalajara Chivas 1 - 0 Necaxa L
17 Oct 2026Liga MX Necaxa 0 - 2 Atlas L
11 Oct 2026Liga MX CF Pachuca 3 - 3 Necaxa D
28 Sep 2026Liga MX Necaxa 2 - 4 Club America L
19 Sep 2026Liga MX Atletico San Luis 3 - 1 Necaxa L
12 Sep 2026Liga MX Necaxa 0 - 1 Puebla L
06 Sep 2026Liga MX Tigres UANL 1 - 1 Necaxa D
29 Aug 2026Liga MX Necaxa 1 - 3 Cruz Azul L
24 Aug 2026Liga MX U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1 - 1 Necaxa D

Who wins? Three ways to read it

1 · X · 2
Goal model
Form & stats
Bookmaker odds
Toluca Draw Necaxa
Value spotted: Necaxa win at 5.79 (model 60% vs market 16%)

Most likely scores

0-1 10%
0-2 10%
1-1 10%
1-2 10%
0-3 6.6%
1-3 6.6%

Expected goals: 1 Toluca · 2 Necaxa

Goal lines

Over 1.5 goals80%
Over 2.5 goals58%
Over 3.5 goals35%
Both teams score55%

Team comparison

Form Attack Defence Goal model Head to head Goals Overall
33%
Form
67%
43%
Attack
57%
50%
Defence
50%
0%
Goal model
0%
93%
Head to head
7%
71%
Goals
29%
58%
Overall
42%

Season numbers

Liga MX 2026

When the goals come

1
0-15'
0
0
16-30'
0
1
31-45'
0
0
46-60'
1
1
61-75'
0
0
76-90'
3
0
0-15'
0
0
16-30'
0
0
31-45'
0
1
46-60'
1
1
61-75'
1
0
76-90'
0
Toluca Necaxa

Side by side

Toluca Necaxa
2 Played 2
1 Won 2
0 Drawn 0
1 Lost 0
1.5 Goals scored per game 2
1 Goals conceded per game 1
1 / 2 Scored per game (home / away) 2 / 0
1 Clean sheets 0
0 Failed to score 0
1 Longest winning run 2
0-2 Biggest win 2-1
1-2 Biggest defeat -
1/1 Penalties scored 1/1

Toluca vs Necaxa: preview and prediction

Toluca host Necaxa in the Mexico Liga MX (Apertura - 3) on Monday, 3rd August 2026 at 02:10 at Estadio Nemesio Diez, Toluca. Toluca sit 5th in the table and Necaxa 17th.

Toluca are still looking for a win, with 0 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 games (L-L-D-D-D). Necaxa are struggling, with 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 games (L-D-L-L-D).

In the last 9 meetings, Toluca won 7, Necaxa won 0 and 2 ended level. These games average 3.6 goals, with both teams scoring in 56% and over 2.5 goals in 78%.

Our goal model expects about 1 goals for Toluca and 2 for Necaxa. It gives Necaxa the edge (18% home win, 21% draw, 60% away win), 58% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score. The most likely score is 0-1.

Our pick was Away Win at odds of 5.79.

Published by

Football Analyst & Predictor · Rarabet

Toluca vs Necaxa FAQs

What is the best prediction for Toluca vs Necaxa?

Our top tip is Away Win: Away Win (5.79 odds).

Who will win Toluca vs Necaxa?

Necaxa are favourites: our model gives Toluca 18%, the draw 21% and Necaxa 60%.

Will both teams score?

Both teams scoring has a 55% chance in our model, and it happened in 56% of recent meetings.

How many goals are expected?

Our model expects 3 goals in total, with a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals.

When is Toluca vs Necaxa?

Kick-off is on Monday, 3rd August 2026 at 02:10 at Estadio Nemesio Diez, Toluca.

Who is the referee?

Jesus Rafael Lopez Valle, Mexico is in charge of this game.