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Toluca vs Atlas Prediction, H2H & Stats

Mexico: Liga MX · Apertura - 8
Toluca

Toluca

5th in table
LLDDD
Full time
5:2
HT 3 - 0
Atlas

Atlas

4th in table
WDWLW
19' A. Vega (Penalty)
22' J. Angulo
24' Manuel Capasso
29' F. Vinas
51' F. Monzon
53' Paulinho
57' Helinho
57' Milton Valenzuela
60' J. Rodriguez (Own Goal)
81' Jesús Serrato
81' Duk
Sunday, 13 September 2026
Estadio Nemesio Diez, Toluca
Mario Terrazas Chavez, Mexico

Head to head

Last 9 meetings
9games
4Toluca wins
4Draws
1Atlas wins
3.1Goals per game
67%Both scored
56%Over 2.5
15 Mar 2026Liga MX Toluca 1 - 1 Atlas
01 Nov 2025Liga MX Atlas 0 - 0 Toluca
13 Apr 2025Liga MX Atlas 2 - 3 Toluca
28 Sep 2024Liga MX Toluca 4 - 1 Atlas
07 Apr 2024Liga MX Toluca 4 - 1 Atlas
26 Aug 2023Liga MX Atlas 0 - 0 Toluca
02 Feb 2023Liga MX Atlas 0 - 0 Toluca
10 Jul 2022Liga MX Toluca 3 - 2 Atlas
24 Apr 2022Liga MX Toluca 2 - 4 Atlas

Liga MX table

#TeamPWDLGoalsGDPtsForm
1 Club America 14842 34:19 +15 28 DLWWD
2 Cruz Azul 14824 32:23 +9 26 WWWDD
3 Guadalajara Chivas 14752 21:12 +9 26 WWDDL
4 Atlas 14734 25:26 -1 24 WLWDW
5 Toluca 14653 29:19 +10 23 DDDLD
6 Leon 14644 21:18 +3 22 DWLDW
7 Club Tijuana 14563 22:18 +4 21 DWDDD
8 Monterrey 13625 23:18 +5 20 LWWDL
9 Club Queretaro 13625 17:18 -1 20 LLLWW
10 Santos Laguna 14617 20:20 0 19 LWWWW
11 Atletico San Luis 14545 19:22 -3 19 WWDLW
12 U.N.A.M. - Pumas 14455 20:23 -3 17 DLWDL
13 CF Pachuca 14446 22:19 +3 16 WLLDL
14 Puebla 14446 16:21 -5 16 LLDDL
15 Tigres UANL 14365 15:19 -4 15 DLDWW
16 Atlante FC 14356 14:20 -6 14 LWLLW
17 Necaxa 14248 16:27 -11 10 DLLDL
18 FC Juarez 141211 9:33 -24 5 DLLDL

Top scorers

Liga MX
1 S. RondónCF Pachuca 13goals 1assists 14apps
2 J. BrunettaTigres UANL 8goals 4assists 13apps
3 JuninhoU.N.A.M. - Pumas 8goals 1assists 14apps
4 H. MartínClub America 8goals 3assists 12apps
5 F. ViñasToluca 7goals 0assists 11apps
6 J. CarranzaNecaxa 7goals 2assists 13apps
7 L. OcamposMonterrey 6goals 3assists 11apps
8 Ó. EstupiñánFC Juarez 6goals 0assists 14apps
9 D. RossiMonterrey 5goals 3assists 12apps
10 B. RodríguezClub America 5goals 3assists 10apps

Recent form

3 W 4 D 3 L in the last 10
24 Oct 2026Liga MX Leon 1 - 1 Toluca D
22 Oct 2026Liga MX Toluca 2 - 2 Club Tijuana D
18 Oct 2026Liga MX Toluca 1 - 1 Atletico San Luis D
10 Oct 2026Liga MX Tigres UANL 3 - 2 Toluca L
03 Oct 2026Friendlies Clubs Monterrey 2 - 1 Toluca L
26 Sep 2026Liga MX Cruz Azul 3 - 3 Toluca D
21 Sep 2026Liga MX Toluca 2 - 3 Santos Laguna L
16 Sep 2026Liga MX Puebla 0 - 1 Toluca W
12 Sep 2026Liga MX Toluca 5 - 2 Atlas W
07 Sep 2026Leagues Cup Toluca 2 - 0 Monterrey W
4 W 3 D 3 L in the last 10
25 Oct 2026Liga MX Atlas 4 - 3 Puebla W
22 Oct 2026Liga MX Atlas 2 - 5 Club America L
17 Oct 2026Liga MX Necaxa 0 - 2 Atlas W
11 Oct 2026Liga MX Atlas 1 - 1 Guadalajara Chivas D
26 Sep 2026Liga MX Club Tijuana 2 - 3 Atlas W
19 Sep 2026Liga MX Atlas 1 - 1 U.N.A.M. - Pumas D
12 Sep 2026Liga MX Toluca 5 - 2 Atlas L
06 Sep 2026Liga MX Atlas 1 - 1 Atlante FC D
29 Aug 2026Liga MX Atlas 1 - 3 Club Queretaro L
23 Aug 2026Liga MX Cruz Azul 0 - 2 Atlas W

Who wins? Three ways to read it

1 · X · 2
Goal model
Form & stats
Bookmaker odds
Toluca Draw Atlas
Value spotted: Atlas win at 6.25 (model 34% vs market 15%)

Most likely scores

1-1 10.4%
2-1 8.8%
1-2 7.8%
1-0 6.9%
2-2 6.6%
0-1 6.1%

Expected goals: 1.7 Toluca · 1.5 Atlas

Goal lines

Over 1.5 goals83%
Over 2.5 goals62%
Over 3.5 goals40%
Both teams score63%

Team comparison

Form Attack Defence Goal model Head to head Goals Overall
59%
Form
41%
63%
Attack
38%
64%
Defence
36%
46%
Goal model
54%
85%
Head to head
15%
71%
Goals
29%
64%
Overall
35%

Season numbers

Liga MX 2026

When the goals come

2
0-15'
3
1
16-30'
1
2
31-45'
1
0
46-60'
1
3
61-75'
2
2
76-90'
1
0
0-15'
0
0
16-30'
3
2
31-45'
2
2
46-60'
1
1
61-75'
1
1
76-90'
3
Toluca Atlas

Side by side

Toluca Atlas
6 Played 7
4 Won 4
1 Drawn 1
1 Lost 2
2 Goals scored per game 1.4
0.7 Goals conceded per game 1.3
2.7 / 1.3 Scored per game (home / away) 1 / 2
3 Clean sheets 2
1 Failed to score 1
1 Longest winning run 2
4-0 Biggest win 2-1
1-2 Biggest defeat 1-3
2/2 Penalties scored 1/1

Toluca vs Atlas: preview and prediction

Toluca host Atlas in the Mexico Liga MX (Apertura - 8) on Sunday, 13th September 2026 at 00:05 at Estadio Nemesio Diez, Toluca. Toluca sit 5th in the table and Atlas 4th.

Toluca are still looking for a win, with 0 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 games (L-L-D-D-D). Atlas are in good shape, with 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 games (W-D-W-L-W).

In the last 9 meetings, Toluca won 4, Atlas won 1 and 4 ended level. These games average 3.1 goals, with both teams scoring in 67% and over 2.5 goals in 56%.

Our goal model expects about 1.7 goals for Toluca and 1.5 for Atlas. It gives Toluca the edge (43% home win, 23% draw, 34% away win), 62% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score. The most likely score is 1-1.

Our pick was Home Win at odds of 1.48. We also like BTTS No, Under 3.5.

Published by

Football Analyst & Predictor · Rarabet

Toluca vs Atlas FAQs

What is the best prediction for Toluca vs Atlas?

Our top tip is Home Win: Home Win (1.48 odds).

Who will win Toluca vs Atlas?

Toluca are favourites: our model gives Toluca 43%, the draw 23% and Atlas 34%.

Will both teams score?

Both teams scoring has a 63% chance in our model, and it happened in 67% of recent meetings.

How many goals are expected?

Our model expects 3.2 goals in total, with a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals.

When is Toluca vs Atlas?

Kick-off is on Sunday, 13th September 2026 at 00:05 at Estadio Nemesio Diez, Toluca.

Who is the referee?

Mario Terrazas Chavez, Mexico is in charge of this game.