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Sydney vs Melbourne Victory Prediction, H2H & Stats

Australia: A-League · Regular Season - 20
Sydney

Sydney

5th in table
WDWWL
Full time
2:2
HT 0 - 1
Melbourne Victory

Melbourne Victory

4th in table
WWDDW
15' Joshua Rawlins
34' J. Mata
44' Rhyan Grant
57' Víctor Campuzano
58' Juan Mata
69' C. Nduka
73' A. Stamatelopoulos
75' A. Arslan
Saturday, 7 March 2026
Sydney Football Stadium, Sydney
L. Keevers

Head to head

Last 7 meetings
7games
2Sydney wins
1Draws
4Melbourne Victory wins
2.7Goals per game
14%Both scored
57%Over 2.5
26 Jan 2026A-League Melbourne Victory 4 - 0 Sydney
22 Nov 2025A-League Sydney 3 - 0 Melbourne Victory
24 Jan 2025A-League Melbourne Victory 2 - 0 Sydney
28 Dec 2024A-League Sydney 3 - 0 Melbourne Victory
26 Jan 2024A-League Melbourne Victory 1 - 1 Sydney
16 Dec 2023A-League Melbourne Victory 3 - 0 Sydney
21 Oct 2023A-League Sydney 0 - 2 Melbourne Victory

A-League table

#TeamPWDLGoalsGDPtsForm
1 Newcastle Jets 261538 55:39 +16 48 WDDLW
2 Adelaide United 261277 46:36 +10 43 WWDDW
3 Auckland 261196 42:29 +13 42 DLDDL
4 Melbourne Victory 261178 44:33 +11 40 WDDLW
5 Sydney 261169 33:25 +8 39 DDWDL
6 Melbourne City 261088 33:33 0 38 LWWWW
7 Macarthur 269710 37:44 -7 34 WLLWW
8 Wellington Phoenix 269611 36:48 -12 33 LWLWW
9 Central Coast Mariners 268810 35:42 -7 32 LWDLD
10 Perth Glory 268711 32:39 -7 31 WDWDD
11 Brisbane Roar 266812 27:36 -9 26 LLDDL
12 Western Sydney Wanderers 265615 27:43 -16 21 LLLLL

Top scorers

A-League
1 S. CosgroveAuckland 12goals 4assists 29apps
2 L. JovanovićAdelaide United 11goals 3assists 24apps
3 E. AdamsNewcastle Jets 10goals 4assists 23apps
4 J. RandallAuckland 9goals 8assists 30apps
5 C. TaylorNewcastle Jets 9goals 3assists 23apps
6 L. BrookAuckland 9goals 2assists 30apps
7 I. EzeWellington Phoenix 9goals 1assists 25apps
8 M. CaputoMelbourne City 8goals 1assists 27apps
9 L. RoseNewcastle Jets 8goals 1assists 26apps
10 X. BertoncelloNewcastle Jets 7goals 1assists 27apps

Recent form

4 W 4 D 2 L in the last 10
09 Sep 2026Australia Cup Sydney 0 - 2 Melbourne Victory L
18 Aug 2026Australia Cup SD Raiders 0 - 1 Sydney W
09 Aug 2026Australia Cup Brisbane Roar 2 - 4 Sydney W
29 Jul 2026Friendlies Clubs Tottenham 1 - 1 Sydney D
21 Jul 2026Australia Cup Bayswater City 1 - 5 Sydney W
23 May 2026A-League Auckland 1 - 0 Sydney L
16 May 2026A-League Newcastle Jets 1 - 1 Sydney D
09 May 2026A-League Sydney 1 - 1 Newcastle Jets D
02 May 2026A-League Melbourne Victory 0 - 1 Sydney W
26 Apr 2026A-League Sydney 2 - 2 Auckland D
5 W 4 D 1 L in the last 10
14 Oct 2026AFC Champions League Two Melbourne Victory 3 - 0 FC Seoul W
10 Oct 2026Australia Cup South Melbourne 1 - 1 Melbourne Victory D
16 Sep 2026AFC Champions League Two Viettel 1 - 1 Melbourne Victory D
09 Sep 2026Australia Cup Sydney 0 - 2 Melbourne Victory W
19 Aug 2026Australia Cup APIA Leichhardt Tigers 0 - 1 Melbourne Victory W
08 Aug 2026Australia Cup Western Sydney Wanderers 1 - 1 Melbourne Victory D
26 Jul 2026Australia Cup Kingborough Lions 0 - 4 Melbourne Victory W
02 May 2026A-League Melbourne Victory 0 - 1 Sydney L
25 Apr 2026A-League Western Sydney Wanderers 0 - 2 Melbourne Victory W
17 Apr 2026A-League Melbourne Victory 2 - 2 Newcastle Jets D

Who wins? Three ways to read it

1 · X · 2
Goal model
Form & stats
Bookmaker odds
Sydney Draw Melbourne Victory
Value spotted: Sydney win at 2.55 (model 53% vs market 38%)

Most likely scores

1-0 11.7%
1-1 11.7%
2-0 9.6%
2-1 9.6%
0-0 7.1%
0-1 7.1%

Expected goals: 1.65 Sydney · 1 Melbourne Victory

Goal lines

Over 1.5 goals74%
Over 2.5 goals49%
Over 3.5 goals27%
Both teams score51%

Team comparison

Form Attack Defence Goal model Head to head Goals Overall
47%
Form
53%
33%
Attack
67%
60%
Defence
40%
73%
Goal model
27%
50%
Head to head
50%
50%
Goals
50%
52%
Overall
47%

Season numbers

A-League 2025

When the goals come

4
0-15'
4
1
16-30'
4
1
31-45'
3
9
46-60'
7
5
61-75'
4
7
76-90'
7
3
0-15'
5
3
16-30'
3
0
31-45'
5
3
46-60'
2
4
61-75'
1
4
76-90'
7
Sydney Melbourne Victory

Side by side

Sydney Melbourne Victory
19 Played 19
10 Won 8
2 Drawn 4
7 Lost 7
1.4 Goals scored per game 1.5
0.9 Goals conceded per game 1.3
1.8 / 1.1 Scored per game (home / away) 1.8 / 1.2
8 Clean sheets 5
6 Failed to score 7
4 Longest winning run 4
4-1 Biggest win 5-1
0-2 Biggest defeat 0-2
0/0 Penalties scored 0/0

Sydney vs Melbourne Victory: preview and prediction

Sydney host Melbourne Victory in the Australia A-League (Regular Season - 20) on Saturday, 7th March 2026 at 09:35 at Sydney Football Stadium, Sydney. Sydney sit 5th in the table and Melbourne Victory 4th.

Sydney are in good shape, with 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 games (W-D-W-W-L). Melbourne Victory are in good shape, with 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 games (W-W-D-D-W).

In the last 7 meetings, Sydney won 2, Melbourne Victory won 4 and 1 ended level. These games average 2.7 goals, with both teams scoring in 14% and over 2.5 goals in 57%.

Our goal model expects about 1.65 goals for Sydney and 1 for Melbourne Victory. It gives Sydney the edge (53% home win, 25% draw, 23% away win), 49% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score. The most likely score is 1-0.

Our pick was Home or Draw at odds of 1.50. We also like Under 3.5.

Published by

Football Analyst & Predictor · Rarabet

Sydney vs Melbourne Victory FAQs

What is the best prediction for Sydney vs Melbourne Victory?

Our top tip is Double Chance: Home or Draw (1.50 odds).

Who will win Sydney vs Melbourne Victory?

Sydney are favourites: our model gives Sydney 53%, the draw 25% and Melbourne Victory 23%.

Will both teams score?

Both teams scoring has a 51% chance in our model, and it happened in 14% of recent meetings.

How many goals are expected?

Our model expects 2.7 goals in total, with a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals.

When is Sydney vs Melbourne Victory?

Kick-off is on Saturday, 7th March 2026 at 09:35 at Sydney Football Stadium, Sydney.

Who is the referee?

L. Keevers is in charge of this game.