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Sao Paulo vs Atletico Paranaense Prediction, H2H & Stats

Brazil: Serie A · Regular Season - 19
Sao Paulo

Sao Paulo

10th in table
LWWDL
Full time
1:2
HT 1 - 0
Atletico Paranaense

Atletico Paranaense

5th in table
DWLDL
18' Arthur Dias
19' Artur
46' Leozinho
51' Leozinho
Thursday, 23 July 2026
Estádio Cícero de Souza Marques, Bragança Paulista
Alex Gomes Stefano, Brazil

Head to head

Last 9 meetings
9games
5Sao Paulo wins
2Draws
2Atletico Paranaense wins
2.2Goals per game
56%Both scored
56%Over 2.5
06 Aug 2025Copa Do Brasil Atletico Paranaense 1 - 0 Sao Paulo
31 Jul 2025Copa Do Brasil Sao Paulo 2 - 1 Atletico Paranaense
10 Nov 2024Serie A Sao Paulo 2 - 1 Atletico Paranaense
04 Jul 2024Serie A Atletico Paranaense 1 - 2 Sao Paulo
29 Oct 2023Serie A Atletico Paranaense 1 - 1 Sao Paulo
21 Jun 2023Serie A Sao Paulo 2 - 1 Atletico Paranaense
31 Jul 2022Serie A Atletico Paranaense 1 - 0 Sao Paulo
10 Apr 2022Serie A Sao Paulo 4 - 0 Atletico Paranaense
25 Nov 2021Serie A Sao Paulo 0 - 0 Atletico Paranaense

Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGoalsGDPtsForm
1 Flamengo 332274 68:28 +40 73 WWWWD
2 Palmeiras 3320103 56:22 +34 70 DWWWW
3 Cruzeiro 3317610 52:46 +6 57 WWWLW
4 Fluminense 331599 52:42 +10 54 WLLLW
5 Atletico Paranaense 331599 50:40 +10 54 LDLWD
6 Bahia 3314118 48:42 +6 53 WDLWL
7 Atletico-MG 3314811 44:39 +5 50 LLWWD
8 RB Bragantino 3413813 44:39 +5 47 WWLDW
9 Santos 34121111 50:49 +1 47 LDDWL
10 Sao Paulo 3312714 39:39 0 43 LDWWL
11 Coritiba 3311913 40:50 -10 42 WLLDL
12 Botafogo 3310914 45:53 -8 39 LLWDL
13 Vasco DA Gama 3210814 40:49 -9 38 LWLDW
14 Vitoria 3310815 35:48 -13 38 LDDLW
15 Gremio 3391014 37:44 -7 37 WWLDD
16 Mirassol 3391014 37:47 -10 37 LDWLD
17 Corinthians 339915 36:42 -6 36 WLDLL
18 Internacional 3381114 37:42 -5 35 LWLDW
19 Remo 3361116 36:51 -15 29 WLDDD
20 Chapecoense-sc 324919 32:66 -34 21 LWLLL

Top scorers

Serie A
1 K. ViverosAtletico Paranaense 21goals 3assists 31apps
2 PedroFlamengo 18goals 6assists 33apps
3 Gabriel BarbosaSantos 15goals 3assists 25apps
4 Kaio JorgeCruzeiro 12goals 2assists 26apps
5 Samuel LinoFlamengo 11goals 9assists 32apps
6 Carlos ViníciusGremio 11goals 1assists 32apps
7 Luciano JubaBahia 11goals 1assists 29apps
8 Danilo SantosBotafogo 10goals 2assists 25apps
9 ReneVitoria 10goals 1assists 25apps
10 J. CalleriSao Paulo 10goals 2assists 27apps

Recent form

3 W 2 D 5 L in the last 10
29 Oct 2026Serie A Bahia 3 - 2 Sao Paulo L
24 Oct 2026Serie A Mirassol 1 - 1 Sao Paulo D
18 Oct 2026Serie A Sao Paulo 1 - 0 Vasco DA Gama W
11 Oct 2026Serie A Sao Paulo 2 - 1 Vitoria W
08 Oct 2026Serie A Cruzeiro 2 - 0 Sao Paulo L
02 Oct 2026Serie A Sao Paulo 1 - 2 Santos L
20 Sep 2026Serie A Sao Paulo 1 - 0 Internacional W
16 Sep 2026CONMEBOL Sudamericana Sao Paulo 1 - 1 Boca Juniors D
12 Sep 2026Serie A Palmeiras 2 - 0 Sao Paulo L
09 Sep 2026CONMEBOL Sudamericana Boca Juniors 1 - 0 Sao Paulo L
3 W 4 D 3 L in the last 10
30 Oct 2026Serie A Gremio 2 - 0 Atletico Paranaense L
24 Oct 2026Serie A Vitoria 1 - 1 Atletico Paranaense D
17 Oct 2026Serie A Atletico Paranaense 0 - 2 Palmeiras L
12 Oct 2026Serie A Chapecoense-sc 1 - 4 Atletico Paranaense W
08 Oct 2026Serie A Atletico Paranaense 2 - 2 Atletico-MG D
20 Sep 2026Serie A Atletico Paranaense 2 - 1 Bahia W
12 Sep 2026Serie A Coritiba 3 - 3 Atletico Paranaense D
06 Sep 2026Serie A Cruzeiro 3 - 1 Atletico Paranaense L
30 Aug 2026Serie A Atletico Paranaense 3 - 3 Fluminense D
24 Aug 2026Serie A Botafogo 2 - 3 Atletico Paranaense W

Who wins? Three ways to read it

1 · X · 2
Goal model
Form & stats
Bookmaker odds
Sao Paulo Draw Atletico Paranaense
Value spotted: Sao Paulo win at 2.04 (model 56% vs market 47%)

Most likely scores

1-0 13.5%
1-1 11.5%
2-0 11.2%
2-1 9.5%
0-0 8.2%
0-1 7%

Expected goals: 1.65 Sao Paulo · 0.85 Atletico Paranaense

Goal lines

Over 1.5 goals71%
Over 2.5 goals46%
Over 3.5 goals24%
Both teams score46%

Team comparison

Form Attack Defence Goal model Head to head Goals Overall
20%
Form
80%
60%
Attack
40%
25%
Defence
75%
74%
Goal model
26%
71%
Head to head
29%
54%
Goals
46%
50%
Overall
49%

Season numbers

Serie A 2026

When the goals come

3
0-15'
7
3
16-30'
1
1
31-45'
3
5
46-60'
4
6
61-75'
1
4
76-90'
8
1
0-15'
5
3
16-30'
3
4
31-45'
5
4
46-60'
1
3
61-75'
0
6
76-90'
4
Sao Paulo Atletico Paranaense

Side by side

Sao Paulo Atletico Paranaense
18 Played 18
7 Won 9
4 Drawn 3
7 Lost 6
1.3 Goals scored per game 1.3
1.1 Goals conceded per game 1
1.8 / 0.9 Scored per game (home / away) 1.7 / 0.9
4 Clean sheets 5
4 Failed to score 5
4 Longest winning run 3
4-1 Biggest win 4-1
0-1 Biggest defeat 0-1
3/3 Penalties scored 3/4

Sao Paulo vs Atletico Paranaense: preview and prediction

Sao Paulo host Atletico Paranaense in the Brazil Serie A (Regular Season - 19) on Thursday, 23rd July 2026 at 01:30 at Estádio Cícero de Souza Marques, Bragança Paulista. Sao Paulo sit 10th in the table and Atletico Paranaense 5th.

Sao Paulo have been inconsistent, with 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 games (L-W-W-D-L). Atletico Paranaense have been inconsistent, with 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 games (D-W-L-D-L).

In the last 9 meetings, Sao Paulo won 5, Atletico Paranaense won 2 and 2 ended level. These games average 2.2 goals, with both teams scoring in 56% and over 2.5 goals in 56%.

Our goal model expects about 1.65 goals for Sao Paulo and 0.85 for Atletico Paranaense. It gives Sao Paulo the edge (56% home win, 24% draw, 19% away win), 46% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score. The most likely score is 1-0.

Our pick was Over 1.5 at odds of 1.35.

Published by

Football Analyst & Predictor · Rarabet

Sao Paulo vs Atletico Paranaense FAQs

What is the best prediction for Sao Paulo vs Atletico Paranaense?

Our top tip is Over/Under 1.5: Over 1.5 (1.35 odds).

Who will win Sao Paulo vs Atletico Paranaense?

Sao Paulo are favourites: our model gives Sao Paulo 56%, the draw 24% and Atletico Paranaense 19%.

Will both teams score?

Both teams scoring has a 46% chance in our model, and it happened in 56% of recent meetings.

How many goals are expected?

Our model expects 2.5 goals in total, with a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals.

When is Sao Paulo vs Atletico Paranaense?

Kick-off is on Thursday, 23rd July 2026 at 01:30 at Estádio Cícero de Souza Marques, Bragança Paulista.

Who is the referee?

Alex Gomes Stefano, Brazil is in charge of this game.