Qarabag vs Safa Baku Prediction, H2H & Stats

Premyer Liqa table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts	Form
1	Neftchi Baku	10	6	3	1	25:11	+14	21	WDDDW
2	Sabah FA	9	6	2	1	20:4	+16	20	LDWDW
3	Qarabag	9	5	4	0	14:7	+7	19	DDDWW
4	Turan	10	5	3	2	11:8	+3	18	WDLWW
5	Kapaz	9	5	2	2	10:9	+1	17	WWDWD
6	Zira	10	4	4	2	14:14	0	16	DWDDL
7	Şamaxı FK	10	3	4	3	15:14	+1	13	LLWDW
8	Imisli FK	10	3	1	6	9:15	-6	10	LWWLL
9	Sumqayıt	9	2	3	4	13:14	-1	9	DLWWD
10	Qabala	10	2	2	6	5:16	-11	8	DWLLL
11	Safa Baku	10	1	1	8	6:18	-12	4	DLLLL
12	Araz	10	0	3	7	9:21	-12	3	DLLLL

Top scorers

Premyer Liqa

1

Oumar Diaw

Safa Baku 0goals 0assists 2apps

Recent form

5 W 4 D 1 L in the last 10

31 Oct 2026Premyer Liqa Qabala

0 - 0

Qarabag D

25 Oct 2026Premyer Liqa Sabah FA

0 - 0

Qarabag D

17 Oct 2026Premyer Liqa Qarabag

3 - 3

Neftchi Baku D

11 Oct 2026Premyer Liqa Imisli FK

0 - 2

Qarabag W

18 Sep 2026Premyer Liqa Qarabag

1 - 0

Safa Baku W

13 Sep 2026Premyer Liqa Zira

1 - 1

Qarabag D

06 Sep 2026Premyer Liqa Qarabag

3 - 2

Araz W

31 Aug 2026Premyer Liqa Sumqayıt

0 - 1

Qarabag W

27 Aug 2026UEFA Europa Conference League Qarabag

1 - 4

Twente L

20 Aug 2026UEFA Europa Conference League Twente

0 - 1

Qarabag W

2 W 1 D 7 L in the last 10

02 Nov 2026Premyer Liqa Sumqayıt

1 - 1

Safa Baku D

28 Oct 2026Cup Safa Baku

9 - 2

Ağstafa Gəncləri W

24 Oct 2026Premyer Liqa Safa Baku

1 - 2

Kapaz L

16 Oct 2026Premyer Liqa Şamaxı FK

3 - 2

Safa Baku L

11 Oct 2026Premyer Liqa Safa Baku

0 - 1

Turan L

18 Sep 2026Premyer Liqa Qarabag

1 - 0

Safa Baku L

14 Sep 2026Premyer Liqa Safa Baku

0 - 3

Sabah FA L

05 Sep 2026Premyer Liqa Neftchi Baku

4 - 1

Safa Baku L

29 Aug 2026Premyer Liqa Safa Baku

0 - 1

Imisli FK L

22 Aug 2026Premyer Liqa Qabala

0 - 1

Safa Baku W

Who wins? Three ways to read it

1 · X · 2

Goal model

67% 17% 15%

Form & stats

50% 50% 0%

Qarabag Draw Safa Baku

Most likely scores

2-1 9.4%

2-0 8.5%

3-1 7.8%

1-1 7.5%

3-0 7.1%

1-0 6.8%

Expected goals: 2.5 Qarabag · 1.1 Safa Baku

Goal lines

Over 1.5 goals87%

Over 2.5 goals69%

Over 3.5 goals48%

Both teams score61%

Team comparison

77%

Form

23%

80%

Attack

20%

71%

Defence

29%

81%

Goal model

19%

0%

Head to head

0%

Goals

0%

77%

Overall

22%

Season numbers

Premyer Liqa 2026

When the goals come

1

0-15'

0

1

16-30'

0

1

31-45'

0

46-60'

1

2

61-75'

1

2

76-90'

0

0-15'

0

16-30'

2

1

31-45'

2

46-60'

2

1

61-75'

3

1

76-90'

1

Qarabag Safa Baku

Side by side

Qarabag Safa Baku

4 Played 5

3 Won 1

1 Drawn 0

0 Lost 4

2 Goals scored per game 0.4

1 Goals conceded per game 2

3 / 1 Scored per game (home / away) 0 / 0.7

1 Clean sheets 1

0 Failed to score 3

3 Longest winning run 1

3-1 Biggest win 0-1

- Biggest defeat 0-3

1/1 Penalties scored 0/0

Qarabag vs Safa Baku: preview and prediction

Qarabag host Safa Baku in the Azerbaijan Premyer Liqa (Regular Season - 6) on Friday, 18th September 2026 at 16:45 at Tofiq Bahramov Stadium, Baku. Qarabag sit 3rd in the table and Safa Baku 11th.

Qarabag are unbeaten, with 2 wins, 3 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 games (W-W-D-D-D). Safa Baku are struggling, with 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 games (L-L-L-W-D).

Our goal model expects about 2.5 goals for Qarabag and 1.1 for Safa Baku. It gives Qarabag the edge (67% home win, 17% draw, 15% away win), 69% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score. The most likely score is 2-1.

Our pick was Over 2.5.

Published by

Udeme Henry

Football Analyst & Predictor · Rarabet

Qarabag vs Safa Baku FAQs

What is the best prediction for Qarabag vs Safa Baku?

Our top tip is Tip of the Day: Over 2.5.

Who will win Qarabag vs Safa Baku?

Qarabag are favourites: our model gives Qarabag 67%, the draw 17% and Safa Baku 15%.

Will both teams score?

Both teams scoring has a 61% chance in our model.

How many goals are expected?

Our model expects 3.6 goals in total, with a 69% chance of over 2.5 goals.

When is Qarabag vs Safa Baku?

Kick-off is on Friday, 18th September 2026 at 16:45 at Tofiq Bahramov Stadium, Baku.

Who is the referee?

V. Hasanli is in charge of this game.