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Qarabag vs Şamaxı FK Prediction, H2H & Stats

Azerbaijan: Cup · Quarter-finals
Qarabag

Qarabag

WWDWW
Full time
3:1
HT 1 - 1
Şamaxı FK

Şamaxı FK

DWDWD
6' E. Addai
31' K. Rossi
47' V. Veremeev
61' E. Addai
63' Leandro Andrade
85' Ricardo Fernandes
90+3' A. Tircoveanu
Wednesday, 4 March 2026
Azersun Arena, Baku

Head to head

Last 7 meetings
7games
5Qarabag wins
1Draws
1Şamaxı FK wins
2.3Goals per game
43%Both scored
57%Over 2.5
10 Feb 2026Premyer Liqa Şamaxı FK 1 - 2 Qarabag
05 Feb 2026Cup Şamaxı FK 2 - 1 Qarabag
26 Oct 2025Premyer Liqa Qarabag 0 - 0 Şamaxı FK
24 May 2025Premyer Liqa Şamaxı FK 0 - 1 Qarabag
17 Jan 2025Premyer Liqa Qarabag 3 - 2 Şamaxı FK
19 Dec 2024Premyer Liqa Şamaxı FK 0 - 1 Qarabag
27 Oct 2024Premyer Liqa Qarabag 3 - 0 Şamaxı FK

Top scorers

Cup
1 V. AboubakarNeftchi Baku 2goals 0assists 2apps
2 Jorge SilvaTuran 1goals 0assists 4apps
3 C. DuránQarabag 1goals 0assists 4apps
4 S. D'AlmeidaNeftchi Baku 1goals 0assists 1apps
5 GuimaZira 0goals 0assists 5apps
6 R. AlmeydaQarabag 0goals 0assists 4apps
7 HenriqueZira 0goals 0assists 4apps
8 E. HackmanTuran 0goals 0assists 4apps
9 JôTuran 0goals 0assists 4apps
10 Ygor NogueiraSabah FA 0goals 0assists 4apps

Recent form

7 W 1 D 2 L in the last 10
11 Oct 2026Premyer Liqa Imisli FK 0 - 2 Qarabag W
18 Sep 2026Premyer Liqa Qarabag 1 - 0 Safa Baku W
13 Sep 2026Premyer Liqa Zira 1 - 1 Qarabag D
06 Sep 2026Premyer Liqa Qarabag 3 - 2 Araz W
31 Aug 2026Premyer Liqa Sumqayıt 0 - 1 Qarabag W
27 Aug 2026UEFA Europa Conference League Qarabag 1 - 4 Twente L
20 Aug 2026UEFA Europa Conference League Twente 0 - 1 Qarabag W
17 Aug 2026Premyer Liqa Qarabag 3 - 1 Şamaxı FK W
13 Aug 2026UEFA Europa Conference League Qarabag 2 - 0 Dynamo Kyiv W
06 Aug 2026UEFA Europa Conference League Dynamo Kyiv 1 - 0 Qarabag L
3 W 4 D 3 L in the last 10
10 Oct 2026Premyer Liqa Zira 1 - 1 Şamaxı FK D
20 Sep 2026Premyer Liqa Şamaxı FK 2 - 1 Araz W
12 Sep 2026Premyer Liqa Sumqayıt 1 - 1 Şamaxı FK D
04 Sep 2026Premyer Liqa Kapaz 1 - 4 Şamaxı FK W
29 Aug 2026Premyer Liqa Qabala 0 - 0 Şamaxı FK D
23 Aug 2026Premyer Liqa Turan 0 - 0 Şamaxı FK D
17 Aug 2026Premyer Liqa Qarabag 3 - 1 Şamaxı FK L
21 May 2026Premyer Liqa Qabala 3 - 1 Şamaxı FK L
16 May 2026Premyer Liqa Şamaxı FK 3 - 2 Turan W
10 May 2026Premyer Liqa Neftchi Baku 3 - 0 Şamaxı FK L

Who wins? Three ways to read it

1 · X · 2
Goal model
Form & stats
Bookmaker odds
Qarabag Draw Şamaxı FK
Value spotted: Draw at 6.15 (model 25% vs market 15%) · Şamaxı FK win at 13.00 (model 23% vs market 7%)

Most likely scores

1-0 11.7%
1-1 11.7%
2-0 9.6%
2-1 9.6%
0-0 7.1%
0-1 7.1%

Expected goals: 1.65 Qarabag · 1 Şamaxı FK

Goal lines

Over 1.5 goals74%
Over 2.5 goals49%
Over 3.5 goals27%
Both teams score51%

Team comparison

Form Attack Defence Goal model Head to head Goals Overall
25%
Form
75%
50%
Attack
50%
33%
Defence
67%
0%
Goal model
0%
71%
Head to head
29%
58%
Goals
42%
47%
Overall
52%

Season numbers

Cup 2025

When the goals come

0
0-15'
0
0
16-30'
1
0
31-45'
1
0
46-60'
1
0
61-75'
1
3
76-90'
0
0
0-15'
0
1
16-30'
0
1
31-45'
0
0
46-60'
0
0
61-75'
0
1
76-90'
1
Qarabag Şamaxı FK

Side by side

Qarabag Şamaxı FK
2 Played 3
1 Won 3
0 Drawn 0
1 Lost 0
2 Goals scored per game 1.3
1 Goals conceded per game 0.3
3 / 1 Scored per game (home / away) 1.5 / 1
1 Clean sheets 2
0 Failed to score 0
1 Longest winning run 3
3-0 Biggest win 2-1
2-1 Biggest defeat -
0/0 Penalties scored 0/0

Qarabag vs Şamaxı FK: preview and prediction

Qarabag host Şamaxı FK in the Azerbaijan Cup (Quarter-finals) on Wednesday, 4th March 2026 at 16:00 at Azersun Arena, Baku.

Qarabag are flying, with 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in their last 5 games (W-W-D-W-W). Şamaxı FK are unbeaten, with 2 wins, 3 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 games (D-W-D-W-D).

In the last 7 meetings, Qarabag won 5, Şamaxı FK won 1 and 1 ended level. These games average 2.3 goals, with both teams scoring in 43% and over 2.5 goals in 57%.

Our goal model expects about 1.65 goals for Qarabag and 1 for Şamaxı FK. It gives Qarabag the edge (53% home win, 25% draw, 23% away win), 49% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score. The most likely score is 1-0.

Our pick was Away or Draw at odds of 4.20.

Published by

Football Analyst & Predictor · Rarabet

Qarabag vs Şamaxı FK FAQs

What is the best prediction for Qarabag vs Şamaxı FK?

Our top tip is Double Chance: Away or Draw (4.20 odds).

Who will win Qarabag vs Şamaxı FK?

Qarabag are favourites: our model gives Qarabag 53%, the draw 25% and Şamaxı FK 23%.

Will both teams score?

Both teams scoring has a 51% chance in our model, and it happened in 43% of recent meetings.

How many goals are expected?

Our model expects 2.7 goals in total, with a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals.

When is Qarabag vs Şamaxı FK?

Kick-off is on Wednesday, 4th March 2026 at 16:00 at Azersun Arena, Baku.