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Penarol vs Defensor Sporting Prediction, H2H & Stats

Uruguay: Primera División · Apertura - 14
Penarol

Penarol

1st in table
DLDLD
Full time
1:1
HT 1 - 0
Defensor Sporting

Defensor Sporting

11th in table
LLLDW
1' Brian Barboza
16' Diego Laxalt
19' L. Umpierrez
43' Axel Frugone
61' Matías Arezo
61' Francisco Sorondo
68' B. Montenegro
77' Matías González
84' Abel Hernández
90+5' Washington Aguerre
90+5' Washington Aguerre
90+5' Washington Aguerre
Monday, 4 May 2026
Estadio Campeón del Siglo, Montevideo
Mathias De Armas, Uruguay

Head to head

Last 8 meetings
8games
8Penarol wins
0Draws
0Defensor Sporting wins
2.1Goals per game
25%Both scored
38%Over 2.5
02 Nov 2025Primera División - Clausura Penarol 2 - 1 Defensor Sporting
16 Oct 2025Copa Uruguay Defensor Sporting 0 - 2 Penarol
07 Jun 2025Primera División - Apertura Penarol 3 - 0 Defensor Sporting
03 May 2025Primera División - Apertura Defensor Sporting 0 - 1 Penarol
17 Nov 2024Primera División - Clausura Penarol 2 - 0 Defensor Sporting
27 Jul 2024Primera División - Apertura Penarol 1 - 0 Defensor Sporting
18 May 2024Primera División - Apertura Defensor Sporting 0 - 2 Penarol
07 Oct 2023Primera División - Clausura Penarol 2 - 1 Defensor Sporting

Primera División table

#TeamPWDLGoalsGDPtsForm
1 Penarol 351997 52:28 +24 65 DDLDW
2 Deportivo Maldonado 351898 54:32 +22 63 DWLDW
3 Atletico Torque 3519610 59:41 +18 63 WWLWL
4 Club Nacional 3519412 53:42 +11 61 WLWWW
5 Racing Montevideo 3516127 45:31 +14 60 WDWLL
6 Liverpool Montevideo 3516118 47:31 +16 59 WWWDW
7 Wanderers 3514912 42:44 -2 51 DLLLW
8 Albion FC 3513814 47:44 +3 47 DWWWW
9 Juventud 35101114 37:43 -6 41 LDLWD
10 Central Espanol 3511816 35:48 -13 41 WLLLL
11 Defensor Sporting 3591214 35:43 -8 39 WDLLL
12 Cerro Largo 3591016 33:41 -8 37 LWDLL
13 Boston River 3510718 34:47 -13 37 LLWWD
14 Cerro 3510718 29:53 -24 37 LLDWL
15 Progreso 3510520 31:49 -18 35 LWWDL
16 Danubio 3561415 29:45 -16 32 LLWLW

Top scorers

Primera División
1 J. UrretaviscayaWanderers 1goals 0assists 7apps
2 M. GoicoecheaDanubio 0goals 0assists 11apps
3 A. MehringProgreso 0goals 0assists 11apps
4 E. VelázquezDanubio 0goals 0assists 10apps
5 G. VieraCerro Largo 0goals 0assists 9apps
6 I. RossiDanubio 0goals 0assists 9apps
7 S. CoatesClub Nacional 0goals 0assists 6apps
8 Juan PerezRacing Montevideo 0goals 0assists 1apps

Recent form

3 W 5 D 2 L in the last 10
31 Oct 2026Primera División Penarol 1 - 1 Wanderers D
27 Oct 2026Copa Uruguay Penarol 0 - 2 Atletico Torque L
23 Oct 2026Primera División Juventud 0 - 0 Penarol D
18 Oct 2026Primera División Liverpool Montevideo 1 - 0 Penarol L
10 Oct 2026Primera División Penarol 1 - 1 Progreso D
04 Oct 2026Primera División Racing Montevideo 0 - 1 Penarol W
30 Sep 2026Primera División Atletico Torque 1 - 1 Penarol D
26 Sep 2026Primera División Penarol 2 - 1 Boston River W
24 Sep 2026Copa Uruguay Danubio 1 - 1 Penarol D
19 Sep 2026Primera División Cerro 1 - 2 Penarol W
3 W 2 D 5 L in the last 10
01 Nov 2026Primera División Progreso 0 - 2 Defensor Sporting W
24 Oct 2026Primera División Defensor Sporting 3 - 3 Racing Montevideo D
17 Oct 2026Primera División Boston River 1 - 0 Defensor Sporting L
10 Oct 2026Primera División Defensor Sporting 2 - 3 Cerro L
03 Oct 2026Primera División Albion FC 3 - 2 Defensor Sporting L
30 Sep 2026Copa Uruguay Defensor Sporting 0 - 1 Plaza Colonia L
27 Sep 2026Primera División Defensor Sporting 1 - 0 Danubio W
20 Sep 2026Primera División Club Nacional 3 - 2 Defensor Sporting L
13 Sep 2026Primera División Defensor Sporting 1 - 0 Deportivo Maldonado W
09 Sep 2026Copa Uruguay Cerro Largo 1 - 1 Defensor Sporting D

Who wins? Three ways to read it

1 · X · 2
Goal model
Form & stats
Bookmaker odds
Penarol Draw Defensor Sporting
Value spotted: Defensor Sporting win at 5.08 (model 29% vs market 18%)

Most likely scores

1-0 13%
1-1 13%
0-0 10%
0-1 10%
2-0 8.5%
2-1 8.5%

Expected goals: 1.3 Penarol · 1 Defensor Sporting

Goal lines

Over 1.5 goals67%
Over 2.5 goals40%
Over 3.5 goals20%
Both teams score46%

Team comparison

Form Attack Defence Goal model Head to head Goals Overall
33%
Form
67%
50%
Attack
50%
30%
Defence
70%
59%
Goal model
41%
100%
Head to head
0%
91%
Goals
9%
52%
Overall
47%

Season numbers

Primera División 2026

When the goals come

2
0-15'
2
4
16-30'
0
2
31-45'
3
1
46-60'
1
1
61-75'
2
8
76-90'
3
3
0-15'
2
0
16-30'
1
5
31-45'
3
4
46-60'
0
1
61-75'
0
1
76-90'
2
Penarol Defensor Sporting

Side by side

Penarol Defensor Sporting
13 Played 13
7 Won 5
2 Drawn 5
4 Lost 3
1.5 Goals scored per game 0.8
1 Goals conceded per game 0.6
1.7 / 1.2 Scored per game (home / away) 1.2 / 0.6
4 Clean sheets 5
2 Failed to score 5
3 Longest winning run 2
3-1 Biggest win 2-0
0-2 Biggest defeat 1-0
1/1 Penalties scored 0/0

Penarol vs Defensor Sporting: preview and prediction

Penarol host Defensor Sporting in the Uruguay Primera División (Apertura - 14) on Monday, 4th May 2026 at 23:30 at Estadio Campeón del Siglo, Montevideo. Penarol sit 1st in the table and Defensor Sporting 11th.

Penarol are still looking for a win, with 0 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 games (D-L-D-L-D). Defensor Sporting are struggling, with 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 games (L-L-L-D-W).

In the last 8 meetings, Penarol won 8, Defensor Sporting won 0 and 0 ended level. These games average 2.1 goals, with both teams scoring in 25% and over 2.5 goals in 38%.

Our goal model expects about 1.3 goals for Penarol and 1 for Defensor Sporting. It gives Penarol the edge (43% home win, 28% draw, 29% away win), 40% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score. The most likely score is 1-0.

Our pick was Away Win at odds of 5.08. We also like Over 1.5.

Published by

Football Analyst & Predictor · Rarabet

Penarol vs Defensor Sporting FAQs

What is the best prediction for Penarol vs Defensor Sporting?

Our top tip is Away Win: Away Win (5.08 odds).

Who will win Penarol vs Defensor Sporting?

Penarol are favourites: our model gives Penarol 43%, the draw 28% and Defensor Sporting 29%.

Will both teams score?

Both teams scoring has a 46% chance in our model, and it happened in 25% of recent meetings.

How many goals are expected?

Our model expects 2.3 goals in total, with a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals.

When is Penarol vs Defensor Sporting?

Kick-off is on Monday, 4th May 2026 at 23:30 at Estadio Campeón del Siglo, Montevideo.

Who is the referee?

Mathias De Armas, Uruguay is in charge of this game.