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Nairobi United vs Mara Sugar Prediction, H2H & Stats

Kenya: FKF Premier League · Regular Season - 20
Nairobi United

Nairobi United

4th in table
DDDLD
Full time
1:1
HT 0 - 0
Mara Sugar

Mara Sugar

11th in table
DWDDL
66' K. Wangaya
88' A. Imbusia
Wednesday, 1 April 2026
Nyayo National Stadium, Nairobi

Head to head

Last 5 meetings
5games
1Nairobi United wins
2Draws
2Mara Sugar wins
1.6Goals per game
40%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
01 Oct 2025FKF Premier League Mara Sugar 0 - 1 Nairobi United
01 Jun 2025Shield Cup Nairobi United 1 - 1 Mara Sugar
01 Jun 2025Shield Cup Nairobi United 1 - 1 Mara Sugar
02 Jun 2024Super League Mara Sugar 1 - 0 Nairobi United
16 Dec 2023Super League Nairobi United 0 - 2 Mara Sugar

FKF Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGoalsGDPtsForm
1 GOR Mahia 342095 50:22 +28 69 LDWDW
2 AFC Leopards 341978 44:28 +16 64 LLWWW
3 Police 3413165 31:21 +10 55 DDDDW
4 Nairobi United 3414119 44:34 +10 53 WDDLW
5 Shabana 34141010 35:34 +1 52 LDWLD
6 Homeboyz 3412139 47:37 +10 49 DDLLL
7 KCB 3413912 36:37 -1 48 WWLDL
8 Murang'a SEAL 3413813 42:41 +1 47 WWLWL
9 Tusker 3413615 27:32 -5 45 DLLWL
10 APS Bomet 34111112 37:35 +2 44 DWWWW
11 Mara Sugar 34101410 30:30 0 44 LDLWL
12 Bandari 349178 26:26 0 44 LWLDD
13 Ulinzi Stars 3411815 34:37 -3 41 WWWLD
14 Mathare United 3411815 31:35 -4 41 WLWLD
15 Posta Rangers FC 3491312 31:40 -9 40 LWDWD
16 Kariobangi Sharks 3481412 30:33 -3 38 WDDWD
17 Bidco United 3451217 19:40 -21 27 WLLLD
18 Sofapaka 3431021 19:51 -32 19 LLDLD

Top scorers

FKF Premier League
1 M. KizzaNairobi United 3goals 0assists 3apps

Recent form

2 W 6 D 2 L in the last 10
01 Nov 2026FKF Premier League Nairobi United 1 - 1 Bandari D
28 Oct 2026FKF Premier League Murang'a SEAL 3 - 2 Nairobi United L
25 Oct 2026FKF Premier League Nairobi United 1 - 1 APS Bomet D
18 Oct 2026FKF Premier League Shabana 0 - 0 Nairobi United D
11 Oct 2026FKF Premier League Nairobi United 2 - 2 KCB D
31 May 2026FKF Premier League GOR Mahia 0 - 1 Nairobi United W
24 May 2026FKF Premier League Nairobi United 0 - 0 Kenya Police D
16 May 2026FKF Premier League Nairobi United 2 - 2 Posta Rangers FC D
10 May 2026FKF Premier League Kariobangi Sharks 2 - 0 Nairobi United L
06 May 2026FKF Premier League Nairobi United 1 - 0 Tusker W
2 W 4 D 4 L in the last 10
02 Nov 2026FKF Premier League Tusker 3 - 1 Mara Sugar L
28 Oct 2026FKF Premier League Mara Sugar 0 - 0 AFC Leopards D
24 Oct 2026FKF Premier League Ulinzi Stars 0 - 0 Mara Sugar D
19 Oct 2026FKF Premier League Mara Sugar 2 - 1 Mombasa Elite W
11 Oct 2026FKF Premier League 3K 2 - 2 Mara Sugar D
31 May 2026FKF Premier League Murang'a SEAL 2 - 1 Mara Sugar L
27 May 2026FKF Premier League Mara Sugar 0 - 0 GOR Mahia D
16 May 2026FKF Premier League Mara Sugar 0 - 1 Mathare United L
13 May 2026FKF Premier League Mara Sugar 1 - 0 Shabana W
09 May 2026FKF Premier League AFC Leopards 2 - 1 Mara Sugar L

Who wins? Three ways to read it

1 · X · 2
Goal model
Form & stats
Bookmaker odds
Nairobi United Draw Mara Sugar
Value spotted: Mara Sugar win at 3.16 (model 36% vs market 29%)

Most likely scores

1-1 12.4%
1-0 9.5%
0-1 9.2%
2-1 8.4%
1-2 8.1%
0-0 7.1%

Expected goals: 1.35 Nairobi United · 1.3 Mara Sugar

Goal lines

Over 1.5 goals74%
Over 2.5 goals49%
Over 3.5 goals27%
Both teams score54%

Team comparison

Form Attack Defence Goal model Head to head Goals Overall
45%
Form
55%
38%
Attack
63%
50%
Defence
50%
51%
Goal model
49%
50%
Head to head
50%
44%
Goals
56%
46%
Overall
53%

Season numbers

FKF Premier League 2025

When the goals come

5
0-15'
2
5
16-30'
2
7
31-45'
5
5
46-60'
6
3
61-75'
7
4
76-90'
2
8
0-15'
5
2
16-30'
2
2
31-45'
4
1
46-60'
4
5
61-75'
5
5
76-90'
5
Nairobi United Mara Sugar

Side by side

Nairobi United Mara Sugar
24 Played 25
9 Won 6
7 Drawn 12
8 Lost 7
1.2 Goals scored per game 0.9
1 Goals conceded per game 1
1.4 / 1 Scored per game (home / away) 0.8 / 1.1
7 Clean sheets 9
7 Failed to score 12
2 Longest winning run 2
3-0 Biggest win 3-1
0-3 Biggest defeat 1-3
2/2 Penalties scored 1/1

Nairobi United vs Mara Sugar: preview and prediction

Nairobi United host Mara Sugar in the Kenya FKF Premier League (Regular Season - 20) on Wednesday, 1st April 2026 at 12:00 at Nyayo National Stadium, Nairobi. Nairobi United sit 4th in the table and Mara Sugar 11th.

Nairobi United are still looking for a win, with 0 wins, 4 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 games (D-D-D-L-D). Mara Sugar have been inconsistent, with 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 games (D-W-D-D-L).

In the last 5 meetings, Nairobi United won 1, Mara Sugar won 2 and 2 ended level. These games average 1.6 goals, with both teams scoring in 40% and over 2.5 goals in 0%.

Our goal model expects about 1.35 goals for Nairobi United and 1.3 for Mara Sugar. It gives Nairobi United the edge (38% home win, 26% draw, 36% away win), 49% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score. The most likely score is 1-1.

Our pick was Home or Draw at odds of 1.32.

Published by

Football Analyst & Predictor · Rarabet

Nairobi United vs Mara Sugar FAQs

What is the best prediction for Nairobi United vs Mara Sugar?

Our top tip is Free Tip: Home or Draw (1.32 odds).

Who will win Nairobi United vs Mara Sugar?

Nairobi United are favourites: our model gives Nairobi United 38%, the draw 26% and Mara Sugar 36%.

Will both teams score?

Both teams scoring has a 54% chance in our model, and it happened in 40% of recent meetings.

How many goals are expected?

Our model expects 2.7 goals in total, with a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals.

When is Nairobi United vs Mara Sugar?

Kick-off is on Wednesday, 1st April 2026 at 12:00 at Nyayo National Stadium, Nairobi.