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Melbourne City vs Melbourne Victory Prediction, H2H & Stats

Australia: A-League · Regular Season - 18
Melbourne City

Melbourne City

6th in table
LWLDW
Full time
1:3
HT 1 - 1
Melbourne Victory

Melbourne Victory

4th in table
LDLDL
20' J. Mata
32' M. Caputo
60' Aziz Behich
64' J. Mata
87' Sebastian Esposito
89' Clarismario
Saturday, 21 February 2026
AAMI Park, Melbourne
D. Elder

Head to head

Last 8 meetings
8games
2Melbourne City wins
3Draws
3Melbourne Victory wins
2.4Goals per game
63%Both scored
38%Over 2.5
20 Dec 2025A-League Melbourne City 0 - 1 Melbourne Victory
08 Nov 2025A-League Melbourne Victory 0 - 2 Melbourne City
31 May 2025A-League Melbourne City 1 - 0 Melbourne Victory
22 Feb 2025A-League Melbourne Victory 2 - 2 Melbourne City
21 Dec 2024A-League Melbourne Victory 1 - 1 Melbourne City
26 Oct 2024A-League Melbourne City 1 - 3 Melbourne Victory
05 May 2024A-League Melbourne Victory 1 - 1 Melbourne City
06 Apr 2024A-League Melbourne Victory 2 - 1 Melbourne City

A-League table

#TeamPWDLGoalsGDPtsForm
1 Newcastle Jets 261538 55:39 +16 48 WDDLW
2 Adelaide United 261277 46:36 +10 43 WWDDW
3 Auckland 261196 42:29 +13 42 DLDDL
4 Melbourne Victory 261178 44:33 +11 40 WDDLW
5 Sydney 261169 33:25 +8 39 DDWDL
6 Melbourne City 261088 33:33 0 38 LWWWW
7 Macarthur 269710 37:44 -7 34 WLLWW
8 Wellington Phoenix 269611 36:48 -12 33 LWLWW
9 Central Coast Mariners 268810 35:42 -7 32 LWDLD
10 Perth Glory 268711 32:39 -7 31 WDWDD
11 Brisbane Roar 266812 27:36 -9 26 LLDDL
12 Western Sydney Wanderers 265615 27:43 -16 21 LLLLL

Top scorers

A-League
1 S. CosgroveAuckland 12goals 4assists 29apps
2 L. JovanovićAdelaide United 11goals 3assists 24apps
3 E. AdamsNewcastle Jets 10goals 4assists 23apps
4 J. RandallAuckland 9goals 8assists 30apps
5 C. TaylorNewcastle Jets 9goals 3assists 23apps
6 L. BrookAuckland 9goals 2assists 30apps
7 I. EzeWellington Phoenix 9goals 1assists 25apps
8 M. CaputoMelbourne City 8goals 1assists 27apps
9 L. RoseNewcastle Jets 8goals 1assists 26apps
10 X. BertoncelloNewcastle Jets 7goals 1assists 27apps

Recent form

4 W 2 D 4 L in the last 10
31 Oct 2026A-League Melbourne City 2 - 1 Sydney W
24 Oct 2026A-League Melbourne Victory 1 - 1 Melbourne City D
17 Oct 2026A-League Auckland 3 - 1 Melbourne City L
25 Sep 2026Friendlies Clubs Oakleigh Cannons 0 - 2 Melbourne City W
11 Aug 2026Australia Cup Lions 2 - 0 Melbourne City L
07 Aug 2026Friendlies Clubs Melbourne City 0 - 2 Palermo L
26 Jul 2026Australia Cup Weston Bears 0 - 3 Melbourne City W
02 May 2026A-League Auckland 1 - 1 Melbourne City D
26 Apr 2026A-League Melbourne City 1 - 2 Adelaide United L
18 Apr 2026A-League Brisbane Roar 2 - 3 Melbourne City W
3 W 4 D 3 L in the last 10
04 Nov 2026AFC Champions League Two Melbourne Victory 1 - 2 Persib Bandung L
01 Nov 2026A-League Melbourne Victory 1 - 1 Central Coast Mariners D
28 Oct 2026AFC Champions League Two Persib Bandung 2 - 0 Melbourne Victory L
24 Oct 2026A-League Melbourne Victory 1 - 1 Melbourne City D
18 Oct 2026A-League Wellington Phoenix 2 - 1 Melbourne Victory L
14 Oct 2026AFC Champions League Two Melbourne Victory 3 - 0 FC Seoul W
10 Oct 2026Australia Cup South Melbourne 1 - 1 Melbourne Victory D
16 Sep 2026AFC Champions League Two Viettel 1 - 1 Melbourne Victory D
09 Sep 2026Australia Cup Sydney 0 - 2 Melbourne Victory W
19 Aug 2026Australia Cup APIA Leichhardt Tigers 0 - 1 Melbourne Victory W

Who wins? Three ways to read it

1 · X · 2
Goal model
Form & stats
Bookmaker odds
Melbourne City Draw Melbourne Victory
Value spotted: Melbourne City win at 2.76 (model 46% vs market 35%)

Most likely scores

1-0 13.5%
1-1 12.9%
0-0 10%
0-1 9.5%
2-0 9.1%
2-1 8.7%

Expected goals: 1.35 Melbourne City · 0.95 Melbourne Victory

Goal lines

Over 1.5 goals67%
Over 2.5 goals40%
Over 3.5 goals20%
Both teams score45%

Team comparison

Form Attack Defence Goal model Head to head Goals Overall
42%
Form
58%
44%
Attack
56%
35%
Defence
65%
64%
Goal model
36%
62%
Head to head
38%
60%
Goals
40%
51%
Overall
48%

Season numbers

A-League 2025

When the goals come

4
0-15'
4
3
16-30'
2
2
31-45'
3
1
46-60'
7
3
61-75'
3
6
76-90'
6
6
0-15'
5
2
16-30'
3
3
31-45'
3
1
46-60'
2
3
61-75'
1
6
76-90'
7
Melbourne City Melbourne Victory

Side by side

Melbourne City Melbourne Victory
17 Played 17
5 Won 7
7 Drawn 3
5 Lost 7
1.1 Goals scored per game 1.4
1.2 Goals conceded per game 1.3
1.1 / 1.1 Scored per game (home / away) 1.9 / 1
7 Clean sheets 5
5 Failed to score 7
1 Longest winning run 4
4-0 Biggest win 5-1
1-3 Biggest defeat 0-2
1/1 Penalties scored 0/0

Melbourne City vs Melbourne Victory: preview and prediction

Melbourne City host Melbourne Victory in the Australia A-League (Regular Season - 18) on Saturday, 21st February 2026 at 09:35 at AAMI Park, Melbourne. Melbourne City sit 6th in the table and Melbourne Victory 4th.

Melbourne City have been inconsistent, with 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 games (L-W-L-D-W). Melbourne Victory are struggling, with 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 games (L-D-L-D-L).

In the last 8 meetings, Melbourne City won 2, Melbourne Victory won 3 and 3 ended level. These games average 2.4 goals, with both teams scoring in 63% and over 2.5 goals in 38%.

Our goal model expects about 1.35 goals for Melbourne City and 0.95 for Melbourne Victory. It gives Melbourne City the edge (46% home win, 28% draw, 26% away win), 40% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score. The most likely score is 1-0.

Our pick was Home or Draw at odds of 1.52. We also like BTTS Yes.

Published by

Football Analyst & Predictor · Rarabet

Melbourne City vs Melbourne Victory FAQs

What is the best prediction for Melbourne City vs Melbourne Victory?

Our top tip is Double Chance: Home or Draw (1.52 odds).

Who will win Melbourne City vs Melbourne Victory?

Melbourne City are favourites: our model gives Melbourne City 46%, the draw 28% and Melbourne Victory 26%.

Will both teams score?

Both teams scoring has a 45% chance in our model, and it happened in 63% of recent meetings.

How many goals are expected?

Our model expects 2.3 goals in total, with a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals.

When is Melbourne City vs Melbourne Victory?

Kick-off is on Saturday, 21st February 2026 at 09:35 at AAMI Park, Melbourne.

Who is the referee?

D. Elder is in charge of this game.