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Manchester City W vs Arsenal W Prediction, H2H & Stats

England: FA WSL · Regular Season - 5
Manchester City W

Manchester City W

2nd in table
WWDDW
Full time
4:2
HT 1 - 1
Arsenal W

Arsenal W

7th in table
LDWWD
43' L. Baum
45' L. Hemp
49' A. Russo
63' K. Casparij
72' L. Hemp
82' Olivia Smith
84' K. Shaw
Sunday, 4 October 2026
Manchester Regional Arena, Manchester
Lowe·Grace

Head to head

Last 9 meetings
9games
3Manchester City W wins
1Draws
5Arsenal W wins
3.3Goals per game
78%Both scored
78%Over 2.5
08 Feb 2026FA WSL Arsenal W 1 - 0 Manchester City W
04 Oct 2025FA WSL Manchester City W 3 - 2 Arsenal W
06 Feb 2025WSL Cup Arsenal W 1 - 2 Manchester City W
02 Feb 2025FA WSL Manchester City W 3 - 4 Arsenal W
22 Sep 2024FA WSL Arsenal W 2 - 2 Manchester City W
05 May 2024FA WSL Manchester City W 1 - 2 Arsenal W
11 Feb 2024FA Women's Cup Arsenal W 0 - 1 Manchester City W
05 Nov 2023FA WSL Arsenal W 2 - 1 Manchester City W
02 Apr 2023FA WSL Arsenal W 2 - 1 Manchester City W

FA WSL table

#TeamPWDLGoalsGDPtsForm
1 Chelsea W 8710 27:4 +23 22 WWWWW
2 Manchester City W 8710 22:10 +12 22 WDWWW
3 London City Lionesses W 8512 20:10 +10 16 LDWWW
4 Tottenham Hotspur W 8413 23:17 +6 13 WLLLW
5 Manchester United W 8332 9:11 -2 12 DDWWW
6 Brighton W 8323 15:11 +4 11 WWLWL
7 Arsenal W 8242 8:9 -1 10 DWDLL
8 Everton W 8314 7:9 -2 10 DLLWL
9 Aston Villa W 8242 10:15 -5 10 DWWDL
10 West Ham W 8305 9:14 -5 9 WLWLL
11 Liverpool W 8224 13:14 -1 8 LDLLW
12 Birmingham City W 8134 10:17 -7 6 LWDLD
13 Crystal Palace W 8134 7:17 -10 6 LLLDD
14 Charlton Athletic W 8008 3:25 -22 0 LLLLL

Top scorers

FA WSL
1 K. ShawManchester City W 9goals 1assists 8apps
2 V. PelovaTottenham Hotspur W 6goals 3assists 8apps
3 M. MalardChelsea W 6goals 0assists 6apps
4 L. HempManchester City W 5goals 5assists 7apps
5 V. AsseyiWest Ham W 5goals 0assists 8apps
6 E. CarpenterChelsea W 4goals 1assists 8apps
7 O. HoldtTottenham Hotspur W 4goals 0assists 8apps
8 K. SeikeBrighton W 4goals 0assists 7apps
9 L. JamesChelsea W 4goals 0assists 5apps
10 D. van de DonkLondon City Lionesses W 3goals 4assists 8apps

Recent form

6 W 4 D 0 L in the last 10
01 Nov 2026FA WSL London City Lionesses W 1 - 2 Manchester City W W
29 Oct 2026UEFA Champions League Women Manchester City W 1 - 1 Paris Saint Germain W D
25 Oct 2026FA WSL Manchester United W 1 - 1 Manchester City W D
18 Oct 2026FA WSL Manchester City W 3 - 2 Brighton W W
04 Oct 2026FA WSL Manchester City W 4 - 2 Arsenal W W
01 Oct 2026UEFA Champions League Women Manchester City W 1 - 1 Real Madrid W D
26 Sep 2026FA WSL Charlton Athletic W 0 - 1 Manchester City W W
22 Sep 2026UEFA Champions League Women Bayern Munich W 2 - 2 Manchester City W D
18 Sep 2026FA WSL Manchester City W 4 - 2 Liverpool W W
13 Sep 2026FA WSL Aston Villa W 1 - 4 Manchester City W W
3 W 5 D 2 L in the last 10
01 Nov 2026FA WSL Arsenal W 1 - 1 Aston Villa W D
28 Oct 2026UEFA Champions League Women Arsenal W 3 - 0 SL Benfica W W
24 Oct 2026FA WSL Tottenham Hotspur W 1 - 2 Arsenal W W
17 Oct 2026FA WSL Arsenal W 1 - 1 Birmingham City W D
04 Oct 2026FA WSL Manchester City W 4 - 2 Arsenal W L
30 Sep 2026UEFA Champions League Women Paris FC W 2 - 2 Arsenal W D
27 Sep 2026FA WSL Chelsea W 1 - 0 Arsenal W L
22 Sep 2026UEFA Champions League Women Arsenal W 1 - 0 Køge W W
19 Sep 2026FA WSL Arsenal W 1 - 1 Manchester United W D
13 Sep 2026FA WSL Arsenal W 0 - 0 Crystal Palace W D

Who wins? Three ways to read it

1 · X · 2
Goal model
Form & stats
Bookmaker odds
Manchester City W Draw Arsenal W
Value spotted: Manchester City W win at 2.47 (model 60% vs market 38%)

Most likely scores

1-0 10%
1-1 10%
2-0 10%
2-1 10%
3-0 6.6%
3-1 6.6%

Expected goals: 2 Manchester City W · 1 Arsenal W

Goal lines

Over 1.5 goals80%
Over 2.5 goals58%
Over 3.5 goals35%
Both teams score55%

Team comparison

Form Attack Defence Goal model Head to head Goals Overall
71%
Form
29%
86%
Attack
14%
33%
Defence
67%
72%
Goal model
28%
50%
Head to head
50%
50%
Goals
50%
60%
Overall
39%

Season numbers

FA WSL 2026

When the goals come

2
0-15'
1
1
16-30'
0
2
31-45'
0
2
46-60'
0
1
61-75'
0
2
76-90'
1
0
0-15'
0
2
16-30'
0
1
31-45'
1
0
46-60'
0
0
61-75'
1
3
76-90'
0
Manchester City W Arsenal W

Side by side

Manchester City W Arsenal W
4 Played 4
4 Won 1
0 Drawn 2
0 Lost 1
3 Goals scored per game 0.5
1 Goals conceded per game 0.5
3.5 / 2.5 Scored per game (home / away) 0.5 / 0.5
1 Clean sheets 2
0 Failed to score 2
4 Longest winning run 1
4-2 Biggest win 0-1
- Biggest defeat 1-0
0/0 Penalties scored 0/0

Manchester City W vs Arsenal W: preview and prediction

Manchester City W host Arsenal W in the England FA WSL (Regular Season - 5) on Sunday, 4th October 2026 at 16:30 at Manchester Regional Arena, Manchester. Manchester City W sit 2nd in the table and Arsenal W 7th.

Manchester City W are in good shape, with 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 games (W-W-D-D-W). Arsenal W have been inconsistent, with 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 games (L-D-W-W-D).

In the last 9 meetings, Manchester City W won 3, Arsenal W won 5 and 1 ended level. These games average 3.3 goals, with both teams scoring in 78% and over 2.5 goals in 78%.

Our goal model expects about 2 goals for Manchester City W and 1 for Arsenal W. It gives Manchester City W the edge (60% home win, 21% draw, 18% away win), 58% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score. The most likely score is 1-0.

Our pick was Home or Draw at odds of 1.40.

Published by

Football Analyst & Predictor · Rarabet

Manchester City W vs Arsenal W FAQs

What is the best prediction for Manchester City W vs Arsenal W?

Our top tip is Double Chance: Home or Draw (1.40 odds).

Who will win Manchester City W vs Arsenal W?

Manchester City W are favourites: our model gives Manchester City W 60%, the draw 21% and Arsenal W 18%.

Will both teams score?

Both teams scoring has a 55% chance in our model, and it happened in 78% of recent meetings.

How many goals are expected?

Our model expects 3 goals in total, with a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals.

When is Manchester City W vs Arsenal W?

Kick-off is on Sunday, 4th October 2026 at 16:30 at Manchester Regional Arena, Manchester.

Who is the referee?

Lowe·Grace is in charge of this game.