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Korea Republic U23 vs Japan U23 Prediction, H2H & Stats

World: Asian Games · Final
Korea Republic U23

Korea Republic U23

WWWWD
Full time
1:0
HT 0 - 0
Japan U23

Japan U23

1st in table
WWWDL
29' Lee Gi-Hyuk
61' Eom Ji-Sung
81' Nelson Ishiwatari
88' Bae Jun-ho
90+1' Bae Hyun-seo
Saturday, 3 October 2026
Toyota Stadium, Toyota
Adam Kersey

Head to head

Last 7 meetings
7games
5Korea Republic U23 wins
0Draws
2Japan U23 wins
2Goals per game
29%Both scored
43%Over 2.5
20 Jan 2026AFC U23 Asian Cup Japan U23 1 - 0 Korea Republic U23
22 Apr 2024AFC U23 Asian Cup Japan U23 0 - 1 Korea Republic U23
07 Oct 2023Asian Games Korea Republic U23 2 - 1 Japan U23
12 Jun 2022AFC U23 Asian Cup Korea Republic U23 0 - 3 Japan U23
01 Sep 2018Asian Games Korea Republic U23 2 - 1 Japan U23
28 Sep 2014Asian Games Korea Republic U23 1 - 0 Japan U23
10 Aug 2012Olympics Men Korea Republic U23 2 - 0 Japan U23

Asian Games table

#TeamPWDLGoalsGDPtsForm
1 Japan U23 3300 12:0 +12 9 LWWWW
2 Thailand U23 3201 8:6 +2 6 LLWW
3 Kyrgyz Republic U23 3102 6:10 -4 3 WLL
4 Hong Kong U23 3003 1:11 -10 0 LLL

Recent form

7 W 2 D 1 L in the last 10
06 Oct 2026Friendlies Australia U23 2 - 2 Korea Republic U23 D
03 Oct 2026Asian Games Korea Republic U23 1 - 0 Japan U23 W
03 Oct 2026Friendlies Australia U23 1 - 2 Korea Republic U23 W
30 Sep 2026Asian Games Korea Republic U23 2 - 1 China PR U23 W
25 Sep 2026Asian Games Korea Republic U23 4 - 0 Vietnam U23 W
22 Sep 2026Asian Games Korea Republic U23 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia U23 W
15 Sep 2026Asian Games Qatar U23 1 - 4 Korea Republic U23 W
09 Jun 2026Friendlies Korea Republic U23 0 - 1 Kyrgyz Republic U23 L
06 Jun 2026Friendlies Thailand U23 2 - 3 Korea Republic U23 W
03 Jun 2026Friendlies Korea Republic U23 1 - 1 UAE U23 D
7 W 2 D 1 L in the last 10
03 Oct 2026Asian Games Korea Republic U23 1 - 0 Japan U23 L
30 Sep 2026Asian Games Uzbekistan U23 1 - 1 Japan U23 D
26 Sep 2026Asian Games Japan U23 1 - 0 Korea DPR U23 W
23 Sep 2026Asian Games Japan U23 3 - 0 Thailand U23 W
20 Sep 2026Asian Games Kyrgyz Republic U23 0 - 7 Japan U23 W
16 Sep 2026Asian Games Japan U23 2 - 0 Hong Kong U23 W
24 Jan 2026AFC U23 Asian Cup China PR U23 0 - 4 Japan U23 W
20 Jan 2026AFC U23 Asian Cup Japan U23 1 - 0 Korea Republic U23 W
16 Jan 2026AFC U23 Asian Cup Japan U23 1 - 1 Jordan U23 D
13 Jan 2026AFC U23 Asian Cup Japan U23 2 - 0 Qatar U23 W

Who wins? Three ways to read it

1 · X · 2
Goal model
Form & stats
Bookmaker odds
Korea Republic U23 Draw Japan U23
Value spotted: Japan U23 win at 3.06 (model 50% vs market 31%)

Most likely scores

1-2 8.7%
1-1 8.1%
2-2 7%
2-1 6.5%
1-3 6.2%
0-2 5.4%

Expected goals: 1.6 Korea Republic U23 · 2.15 Japan U23

Goal lines

Over 1.5 goals89%
Over 2.5 goals72%
Over 3.5 goals51%
Both teams score70%

Team comparison

Form Attack Defence Goal model Head to head Goals Overall
48%
Form
52%
46%
Attack
54%
33%
Defence
67%
46%
Goal model
54%
60%
Head to head
40%
45%
Goals
55%
46%
Overall
53%

Season numbers

Asian Games 2026

When the goals come

2
0-15'
0
1
16-30'
1
2
31-45'
5
0
46-60'
2
3
61-75'
2
4
76-90'
4
0
0-15'
1
1
16-30'
0
0
31-45'
0
0
46-60'
0
0
61-75'
0
1
76-90'
0
Korea Republic U23 Japan U23

Side by side

Korea Republic U23 Japan U23
4 Played 5
4 Won 4
0 Drawn 1
0 Lost 0
3 Goals scored per game 2.8
0.5 Goals conceded per game 0.2
2.7 / 4 Scored per game (home / away) 2 / 4
2 Clean sheets 4
0 Failed to score 0
4 Longest winning run 4
4-0 Biggest win 3-0
- Biggest defeat -
0/0 Penalties scored 10/11

Korea Republic U23 vs Japan U23: preview and prediction

Korea Republic U23 host Japan U23 in the World Asian Games (Final) on Saturday, 3rd October 2026 at 11:30 at Toyota Stadium, Toyota.

Korea Republic U23 are flying, with 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in their last 5 games (W-W-W-W-D). Japan U23 are in good shape, with 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 games (W-W-W-D-L).

In the last 7 meetings, Korea Republic U23 won 5, Japan U23 won 2 and 0 ended level. These games average 2 goals, with both teams scoring in 29% and over 2.5 goals in 43%.

Our goal model expects about 1.6 goals for Korea Republic U23 and 2.15 for Japan U23. It gives Japan U23 the edge (29% home win, 21% draw, 50% away win), 72% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score. The most likely score is 1-2.

Our pick was Home or Draw at odds of 1.32. We also like Over 1.5, Draw.

Published by

Football Analyst & Predictor · Rarabet

Korea Republic U23 vs Japan U23 FAQs

What is the best prediction for Korea Republic U23 vs Japan U23?

Our top tip is Double Chance: Home or Draw (1.32 odds).

Who will win Korea Republic U23 vs Japan U23?

Japan U23 are favourites: our model gives Korea Republic U23 29%, the draw 21% and Japan U23 50%.

Will both teams score?

Both teams scoring has a 70% chance in our model, and it happened in 29% of recent meetings.

How many goals are expected?

Our model expects 3.8 goals in total, with a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals.

When is Korea Republic U23 vs Japan U23?

Kick-off is on Saturday, 3rd October 2026 at 11:30 at Toyota Stadium, Toyota.

Who is the referee?

Adam Kersey is in charge of this game.