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Chelsea vs Manchester City Prediction, H2H & Stats

England: FA Cup · Final
Chelsea

Chelsea

WWLDW
Full time
0:1
HT 0 - 0
Manchester City

Manchester City

WWLDL
29' Enzo Fernández
32' Marc Cucurella
56' Abdukodir Khusanov
72' A. Semenyo
90+2' Moisés Caicedo
Saturday, 16 May 2026
Wembley Stadium, London
D. England

Head to head

Last 9 meetings
9games
0Chelsea wins
3Draws
6Manchester City wins
3.2Goals per game
56%Both scored
44%Over 2.5
12 Apr 2026Premier League Chelsea 0 - 3 Manchester City
04 Jan 2026Premier League Manchester City 1 - 1 Chelsea
25 Jan 2025Premier League Manchester City 3 - 1 Chelsea
18 Aug 2024Premier League Chelsea 0 - 2 Manchester City
03 Aug 2024Friendlies Clubs Manchester City 4 - 2 Chelsea
20 Apr 2024FA Cup Manchester City 1 - 0 Chelsea
17 Feb 2024Premier League Manchester City 1 - 1 Chelsea
12 Nov 2023Premier League Chelsea 4 - 4 Manchester City
21 May 2023Premier League Manchester City 1 - 0 Chelsea

Top scorers

FA Cup
1 Pedro NetoChelsea 4goals 2assists 6apps
2 Gabriel MartinelliArsenal 4goals 1assists 4apps
3 A. SemenyoManchester City 3goals 2assists 5apps
4 E. RiisBristol City 3goals 1assists 2apps
5 J. Strand LarsenWolves 3goals 1assists 1apps
6 L. ReedMansfield Town 3goals 0assists 5apps
7 T. ShadeBurton Albion 3goals 0assists 3apps
8 H. BarnesNewcastle 3goals 0assists 3apps
9 J. MakamaNorwich 3goals 0assists 1apps
10 E. HaalandManchester City 3goals 1assists 4apps

Recent form

5 W 2 D 3 L in the last 10
31 Oct 2026Premier League Chelsea 2 - 0 Manchester United W
28 Oct 2026League Cup Liverpool 1 - 1 Chelsea D
24 Oct 2026Premier League Chelsea 0 - 2 Tottenham L
17 Oct 2026Premier League Everton 0 - 2 Chelsea W
10 Oct 2026Premier League Chelsea 5 - 1 Bournemouth W
18 Sep 2026Premier League Brentford 3 - 0 Chelsea L
12 Sep 2026Premier League Chelsea 2 - 2 Hull City D
09 Sep 2026League Cup Chelsea 6 - 3 Leeds W
06 Sep 2026Premier League Arsenal 2 - 1 Chelsea L
30 Aug 2026Premier League Chelsea 4 - 3 Brighton W
6 W 1 D 3 L in the last 10
31 Oct 2026Premier League Manchester City 0 - 1 Brighton L
28 Oct 2026League Cup Manchester City 2 - 2 Brighton D
24 Oct 2026Premier League Aston Villa 2 - 1 Manchester City L
20 Oct 2026UEFA Champions League Manchester City 5 - 1 AEK Athens FC W
17 Oct 2026Premier League Manchester City 3 - 2 Ipswich W
14 Oct 2026UEFA Champions League Manchester City 2 - 4 Paris Saint Germain L
11 Oct 2026Premier League Liverpool 0 - 3 Manchester City W
20 Sep 2026Premier League Manchester City 5 - 3 Sunderland W
17 Sep 2026League Cup Manchester City 5 - 0 Norwich W
13 Sep 2026Premier League Manchester United 0 - 1 Manchester City W

Who wins? Three ways to read it

1 · X · 2
Goal model
Form & stats
Bookmaker odds
Chelsea Draw Manchester City
Value spotted: Chelsea win at 4.78 (model 53% vs market 21%)

Most likely scores

2-1 7.6%
2-2 6.9%
3-1 6.4%
1-1 6.1%
3-2 5.7%
1-2 5.5%

Expected goals: 2.5 Chelsea · 1.8 Manchester City

Goal lines

Over 1.5 goals92%
Over 2.5 goals80%
Over 3.5 goals62%
Both teams score76%

Team comparison

Form Attack Defence Goal model Head to head Goals Overall
50%
Form
50%
50%
Attack
50%
50%
Defence
50%
100%
Goal model
0%
7%
Head to head
93%
24%
Goals
76%
36%
Overall
63%

Season numbers

FA Cup 2025

When the goals come

1
0-15'
1
2
16-30'
1
2
31-45'
3
4
46-60'
5
3
61-75'
2
5
76-90'
6
0
0-15'
1
1
16-30'
1
2
31-45'
2
1
46-60'
0
0
61-75'
0
1
76-90'
2
Chelsea Manchester City

Side by side

Chelsea Manchester City
5 Played 5
5 Won 5
0 Drawn 0
0 Lost 0
4.2 Goals scored per game 4.2
0.6 Goals conceded per game 0.6
4 / 4.3 Scored per game (home / away) 4.5 / 3
3 Clean sheets 2
0 Failed to score 0
5 Longest winning run 5
7-0 Biggest win 10-1
- Biggest defeat -
2/2 Penalties scored 1/1

Chelsea vs Manchester City: preview and prediction

Chelsea host Manchester City in the England FA Cup (Final) on Saturday, 16th May 2026 at 15:00 at Wembley Stadium, London.

Chelsea are in good shape, with 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 games (W-W-L-D-W). Manchester City have been inconsistent, with 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 games (W-W-L-D-L).

In the last 9 meetings, Chelsea won 0, Manchester City won 6 and 3 ended level. These games average 3.2 goals, with both teams scoring in 56% and over 2.5 goals in 44%.

Our goal model expects about 2.5 goals for Chelsea and 1.8 for Manchester City. It gives Chelsea the edge (53% home win, 19% draw, 28% away win), 80% for over 2.5 goals and 76% for both teams to score. The most likely score is 2-1.

Our pick was Away Win at odds of 1.75. We also like Under 3.5.

Published by

Football Analyst & Predictor · Rarabet

Chelsea vs Manchester City FAQs

What is the best prediction for Chelsea vs Manchester City?

Our top tip is Away Win: Away Win (1.75 odds).

Who will win Chelsea vs Manchester City?

Chelsea are favourites: our model gives Chelsea 53%, the draw 19% and Manchester City 28%.

Will both teams score?

Both teams scoring has a 76% chance in our model, and it happened in 56% of recent meetings.

How many goals are expected?

Our model expects 4.3 goals in total, with a 80% chance of over 2.5 goals.

When is Chelsea vs Manchester City?

Kick-off is on Saturday, 16th May 2026 at 15:00 at Wembley Stadium, London.

Who is the referee?

D. England is in charge of this game.