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Chelsea vs Leeds Prediction, H2H & Stats

England: League Cup · Round of 32
Chelsea

Chelsea

WWLDW
Full time
6:3
HT 0 - 1
Leeds

Leeds

DLDDL
23' Tarik Muharemovic
45+1' Reggie Watson
48' Brenden Aaronson
53' Cole Palmer (Penalty)
55' Cole Palmer
60' Pedro Neto
65' Danny Welbeck
75' Dominic Calvert-Lewin
80' Valentin Barco
82' Xabier Alonso Olano
90+4' Danny Welbeck
Wednesday, 9 September 2026
Stamford Bridge, London
J. Gillett

Head to head

Last 9 meetings
9games
5Chelsea wins
2Draws
2Leeds wins
2.9Goals per game
44%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
26 Apr 2026FA Cup Chelsea 1 - 0 Leeds
10 Feb 2026Premier League Chelsea 2 - 2 Leeds
03 Dec 2025Premier League Leeds 3 - 1 Chelsea
28 Feb 2024FA Cup Chelsea 3 - 2 Leeds
04 Mar 2023Premier League Chelsea 1 - 0 Leeds
21 Aug 2022Premier League Leeds 3 - 0 Chelsea
11 May 2022Premier League Leeds 0 - 3 Chelsea
11 Dec 2021Premier League Chelsea 3 - 2 Leeds
13 Mar 2021Premier League Leeds 0 - 0 Chelsea

Top scorers

League Cup
1 T. BarryEverton 4goals 2assists 3apps
2 H. LeonardPeterborough 4goals 0assists 3apps
3 R. ClearyBarnsley 3goals 1assists 3apps
4 C. EvansFleetwood Town 3goals 0assists 4apps
5 V. CastellanosWest Ham 3goals 0assists 3apps
6 C. WilsonBrentford 3goals 0assists 3apps
7 D. WelbeckChelsea 3goals 0assists 3apps
8 R. ChristieBournemouth 3goals 0assists 2apps
9 Y. SalechCardiff 3goals 1assists 2apps
10 J. BowenWest Ham 2goals 1assists 3apps

Recent form

5 W 2 D 3 L in the last 10
31 Oct 2026Premier League Chelsea 2 - 0 Manchester United W
28 Oct 2026League Cup Liverpool 1 - 1 Chelsea D
24 Oct 2026Premier League Chelsea 0 - 2 Tottenham L
17 Oct 2026Premier League Everton 0 - 2 Chelsea W
10 Oct 2026Premier League Chelsea 5 - 1 Bournemouth W
18 Sep 2026Premier League Brentford 3 - 0 Chelsea L
12 Sep 2026Premier League Chelsea 2 - 2 Hull City D
09 Sep 2026League Cup Chelsea 6 - 3 Leeds W
06 Sep 2026Premier League Arsenal 2 - 1 Chelsea L
30 Aug 2026Premier League Chelsea 4 - 3 Brighton W
2 W 5 D 3 L in the last 10
31 Oct 2026Premier League Bournemouth 2 - 0 Leeds L
25 Oct 2026Premier League Sunderland 0 - 0 Leeds D
18 Oct 2026Premier League Leeds 1 - 1 Manchester United D
10 Oct 2026Premier League Arsenal 2 - 1 Leeds L
20 Sep 2026Premier League Leeds 0 - 0 Crystal Palace D
14 Sep 2026Premier League Leeds 4 - 1 Newcastle W
09 Sep 2026League Cup Chelsea 6 - 3 Leeds L
05 Sep 2026Premier League Brighton 1 - 1 Leeds D
30 Aug 2026Premier League Leeds 1 - 1 Brentford D
25 Aug 2026League Cup Nottingham Forest 0 - 2 Leeds W

Who wins? Three ways to read it

1 · X · 2
Goal model
Form & stats
Bookmaker odds
Chelsea Draw Leeds
Value spotted: Leeds win at 4.76 (model 40% vs market 20%)

Most likely scores

1-1 7.3%
1-2 7.3%
2-1 7.3%
2-2 7.3%
1-3 4.9%
2-3 4.9%

Expected goals: 2 Chelsea · 2 Leeds

Goal lines

Over 1.5 goals91%
Over 2.5 goals76%
Over 3.5 goals56%
Both teams score75%

Team comparison

Form Attack Defence Goal model Head to head Goals Overall
50%
Form
50%
50%
Attack
50%
0%
Defence
0%
0%
Goal model
0%
71%
Head to head
29%
53%
Goals
47%
56%
Overall
44%

Season numbers

League Cup 2026

When the goals come

0
0-15'
0
0
16-30'
0
0
31-45'
0
1
46-60'
1
0
61-75'
1
0
76-90'
0
0
0-15'
0
0
16-30'
0
0
31-45'
0
0
46-60'
0
0
61-75'
0
1
76-90'
0
Chelsea Leeds

Side by side

Chelsea Leeds
1 Played 1
1 Won 1
0 Drawn 0
0 Lost 0
2 Goals scored per game 2
0 Goals conceded per game 0
2 / 0 Scored per game (home / away) 0 / 2
1 Clean sheets 1
0 Failed to score 0
1 Longest winning run 1
2-0 Biggest win 0-2
- Biggest defeat -
0/0 Penalties scored 0/0

Chelsea vs Leeds: preview and prediction

Chelsea host Leeds in the England League Cup (Round of 32) on Wednesday, 9th September 2026 at 20:00 at Stamford Bridge, London.

Chelsea are in good shape, with 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 games (W-W-L-D-W). Leeds are still looking for a win, with 0 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 games (D-L-D-D-L).

In the last 9 meetings, Chelsea won 5, Leeds won 2 and 2 ended level. These games average 2.9 goals, with both teams scoring in 44% and over 2.5 goals in 67%.

Our goal model expects about 2 goals for Chelsea and 2 for Leeds. It gives Chelsea the edge (40% home win, 21% draw, 40% away win), 76% for over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score. The most likely score is 1-1.

Our pick was Home or Draw at odds of 1.21. We also like Over 2.5, BTTS Yes, Draw.

Published by

Football Analyst & Predictor · Rarabet

Chelsea vs Leeds FAQs

What is the best prediction for Chelsea vs Leeds?

Our top tip is Double Chance: Home or Draw (1.21 odds).

Who will win Chelsea vs Leeds?

It looks very close: our model gives Chelsea 40%, the draw 21% and Leeds 40%.

Will both teams score?

Both teams scoring has a 75% chance in our model, and it happened in 44% of recent meetings.

How many goals are expected?

Our model expects 4 goals in total, with a 76% chance of over 2.5 goals.

When is Chelsea vs Leeds?

Kick-off is on Wednesday, 9th September 2026 at 20:00 at Stamford Bridge, London.

Who is the referee?

J. Gillett is in charge of this game.