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Ayr Utd vs Stenhousemuir Prediction, H2H & Stats

Scotland: Championship · Regular Season - 8
Ayr Utd

Ayr Utd

7th in table
LWLWD
Full time
0:1
HT 0 - 1
Stenhousemuir

Stenhousemuir

1st in table
LWWWL
20' S. Young
30' L. Grant
43' M. Gillies
50' R. Taylor
51' A. Shinnie
87' K. Shanks
89' N. McAllister
Friday, 25 September 2026
Somerset Park, Ayr
R. Lee

Head to head

Last 7 meetings
7games
7Ayr Utd wins
0Draws
0Stenhousemuir wins
4Goals per game
43%Both scored
71%Over 2.5
23 Jul 2024League Cup Stenhousemuir 1 - 4 Ayr Utd
18 Jul 2023League Cup Ayr Utd 1 - 0 Stenhousemuir
24 Jul 2018League Cup Ayr Utd 5 - 0 Stenhousemuir
16 Apr 2016League One Stenhousemuir 0 - 4 Ayr Utd
08 Mar 2016League One Ayr Utd 4 - 1 Stenhousemuir
24 Oct 2015League One Stenhousemuir 0 - 1 Ayr Utd
01 Sep 2015League One Ayr Utd 5 - 2 Stenhousemuir

Championship table

#TeamPWDLGoalsGDPtsForm
1 Stenhousemuir 9711 12:4 +8 22 LWWWW
2 Raith Rovers 10622 15:6 +9 20 WWLDW
3 Partick 9531 10:3 +7 18 WWDLW
4 Livingston 10415 14:11 +3 13 LLWDW
5 Dunfermline 8341 7:5 +2 13 DWWDW
6 Inverness CT 10343 12:11 +1 13 LWWDW
7 Ayr Utd 10334 10:11 -1 12 DWLWL
8 Arbroath 10325 7:15 -8 11 LLWLL
9 Queen's Park 10217 6:16 -10 7 WLLLL
10 Morton 10118 7:18 -11 4 WLLLL

Recent form

2 W 3 D 5 L in the last 10
10 Oct 2026Championship Ayr Utd 1 - 1 Dunfermline D
03 Oct 2026Championship Livingston 1 - 2 Ayr Utd W
25 Sep 2026Championship Ayr Utd 0 - 1 Stenhousemuir L
18 Sep 2026Championship Queen's Park 0 - 2 Ayr Utd W
12 Sep 2026Championship Ayr Utd 1 - 3 Inverness CT L
05 Sep 2026Championship Partick 1 - 0 Ayr Utd L
29 Aug 2026Championship Ayr Utd 1 - 1 Morton D
22 Aug 2026Championship Raith Rovers 2 - 0 Ayr Utd L
14 Aug 2026League Cup Kilmarnock 3 - 2 Ayr Utd L
08 Aug 2026Championship Dunfermline 1 - 1 Ayr Utd D
8 W 0 D 2 L in the last 10
10 Oct 2026Championship Inverness CT 2 - 0 Stenhousemuir L
25 Sep 2026Championship Ayr Utd 0 - 1 Stenhousemuir W
19 Sep 2026Championship Stenhousemuir 1 - 0 Arbroath W
15 Sep 2026Championship Stenhousemuir 1 - 0 Partick W
11 Sep 2026League Cup Stenhousemuir 0 - 3 Heart Of Midlothian L
04 Sep 2026Championship Livingston 0 - 1 Stenhousemuir W
29 Aug 2026Championship Stenhousemuir 3 - 1 Inverness CT W
22 Aug 2026Championship Queen's Park 0 - 2 Stenhousemuir W
16 Aug 2026League Cup Stenhousemuir 1 - 0 Motherwell W
08 Aug 2026Championship Stenhousemuir 2 - 0 Morton W

Who wins? Three ways to read it

1 · X · 2
Goal model
Form & stats
Bookmaker odds
Ayr Utd Draw Stenhousemuir
Value spotted: Stenhousemuir win at 3.18 (model 48% vs market 28%)

Most likely scores

0-1 15.9%
1-1 12.7%
0-0 12.2%
0-2 10.3%
1-0 9.8%
1-2 8.3%

Expected goals: 0.8 Ayr Utd · 1.3 Stenhousemuir

Goal lines

Over 1.5 goals62%
Over 2.5 goals35%
Over 3.5 goals16%
Both teams score40%

Team comparison

Form Attack Defence Goal model Head to head Goals Overall
21%
Form
79%
33%
Attack
67%
13%
Defence
88%
16%
Goal model
84%
100%
Head to head
0%
90%
Goals
10%
34%
Overall
65%

Season numbers

Championship 2026

When the goals come

0
0-15'
1
1
16-30'
2
4
31-45'
1
0
46-60'
4
1
61-75'
0
1
76-90'
3
4
0-15'
0
1
16-30'
1
1
31-45'
0
0
46-60'
1
2
61-75'
0
0
76-90'
0
Ayr Utd Stenhousemuir

Side by side

Ayr Utd Stenhousemuir
7 Played 7
2 Won 6
2 Drawn 1
3 Lost 0
1 Goals scored per game 1.6
1.1 Goals conceded per game 0.3
1.3 / 0.8 Scored per game (home / away) 1.8 / 1.3
2 Clean sheets 5
2 Failed to score 0
1 Longest winning run 0
2-0 Biggest win 3-1
1-3 Biggest defeat -
1/2 Penalties scored 0/0

Ayr Utd vs Stenhousemuir: preview and prediction

Ayr Utd host Stenhousemuir in the Scotland Championship (Regular Season - 8) on Friday, 25th September 2026 at 19:45 at Somerset Park, Ayr. Ayr Utd sit 7th in the table and Stenhousemuir 1st.

Ayr Utd have been inconsistent, with 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 games (L-W-L-W-D). Stenhousemuir are in good shape, with 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 games (L-W-W-W-L).

In the last 7 meetings, Ayr Utd won 7, Stenhousemuir won 0 and 0 ended level. These games average 4 goals, with both teams scoring in 43% and over 2.5 goals in 71%.

Our goal model expects about 0.8 goals for Ayr Utd and 1.3 for Stenhousemuir. It gives Stenhousemuir the edge (23% home win, 29% draw, 48% away win), 35% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score. The most likely score is 0-1.

Our pick was Away Win at odds of 3.18. We also like Over 1.5.

Published by

Football Analyst & Predictor · Rarabet

Ayr Utd vs Stenhousemuir FAQs

What is the best prediction for Ayr Utd vs Stenhousemuir?

Our top tip is Away Win: Away Win (3.18 odds).

Who will win Ayr Utd vs Stenhousemuir?

Stenhousemuir are favourites: our model gives Ayr Utd 23%, the draw 29% and Stenhousemuir 48%.

Will both teams score?

Both teams scoring has a 40% chance in our model, and it happened in 43% of recent meetings.

How many goals are expected?

Our model expects 2.1 goals in total, with a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals.

When is Ayr Utd vs Stenhousemuir?

Kick-off is on Friday, 25th September 2026 at 19:45 at Somerset Park, Ayr.

Who is the referee?

R. Lee is in charge of this game.