Arsenal vs Chelsea Prediction, H2H & Stats

England: Premier League · Regular Season - 3
Arsenal

Arsenal

2nd in table
WWDWD
Full time
2:1
HT 1 - 1
Chelsea

Chelsea

5th in table
LWWLD
2' Morgan Rogers
14' João Pedro
25' Kai Havertz
45' Cole Palmer
50' Martin Ødegaard
58' Christos Tzolis
58' Maxence Lacroix
83' Morgan Rogers
90+5' Mikel Merino
Sunday, 6 September 2026
Emirates Stadium, London
Chris Kavanagh, England

Head to head

Last 9 meetings
9games
6Arsenal wins
3Draws
0Chelsea wins
3Goals per game
67%Both scored
56%Over 2.5
01 Mar 2026Premier League Arsenal 2 - 1 Chelsea
03 Feb 2026League Cup Arsenal 1 - 0 Chelsea
14 Jan 2026League Cup Chelsea 2 - 3 Arsenal
30 Nov 2025Premier League Chelsea 1 - 1 Arsenal
16 Mar 2025Premier League Arsenal 1 - 0 Chelsea
10 Nov 2024Premier League Chelsea 1 - 1 Arsenal
23 Apr 2024Premier League Arsenal 5 - 0 Chelsea
21 Oct 2023Premier League Chelsea 2 - 2 Arsenal
02 May 2023Premier League Arsenal 3 - 1 Chelsea

Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGoalsGDPtsForm
1 Manchester City 8701 20:9 +11 21 LWWWW
2 Arsenal 8701 13:5 +8 21 WWWLW
3 Brighton 8512 23:7 +16 16 LWWWW
4 Liverpool 8431 11:8 +3 15 WWLWD
5 Chelsea 8413 17:15 +2 13 LWWLD
6 Brentford 8251 14:9 +5 11 DLDWD
7 Leeds 8251 9:6 +3 11 DDLDW
8 Newcastle 8323 12:14 -2 11 WLLWL
9 Aston Villa 8323 9:12 -3 11 WWDWL
10 Hull City 8242 9:8 +1 10 DLDLD
11 Everton 8242 8:9 -1 10 LLDWD
12 Ipswich 8314 12:16 -4 10 DLWLW
13 Bournemouth 8233 12:13 -1 9 WWLLD
14 Tottenham 8233 8:10 -2 9 WWDLD
15 Fulham 8224 8:10 -2 8 WWLDD
16 Manchester United 8143 10:13 -3 7 LDDDL
17 Crystal Palace 8215 9:19 -10 7 LLWDL
18 Nottingham Forest 8134 6:10 -4 6 DLLLW
19 Coventry 8206 6:15 -9 6 LLWWL
20 Sunderland 8125 6:14 -8 5 DLLLL

Top scorers

Premier League
1 E. HaalandManchester City 9goals 0assists 8apps
2 A. IsakLiverpool 6goals 0assists 7apps
3 João PedroChelsea 5goals 3assists 6apps
4 M. TavernierBournemouth 5goals 0assists 8apps
5 R. CherkiManchester City 4goals 2assists 7apps
6 M. RogersChelsea 4goals 1assists 8apps
7 B. MbeumoManchester United 4goals 0assists 8apps
8 N. JacksonAston Villa 4goals 0assists 7apps
9 EvanilsonBournemouth 3goals 4assists 8apps
10 C. KostoulasBrighton 3goals 2assists 8apps

Recent form

7 W 2 D 1 L in the last 10
27 Oct 2026League Cup Fleetwood Town 1 - 1 Arsenal D
24 Oct 2026Premier League Arsenal 2 - 0 Everton W
21 Oct 2026UEFA Champions League Bayern München 2 - 2 Arsenal D
18 Oct 2026Premier League Nottingham Forest 0 - 1 Arsenal W
13 Oct 2026UEFA Champions League Arsenal 3 - 0 Lille W
10 Oct 2026Premier League Arsenal 2 - 1 Leeds W
19 Sep 2026Premier League Brighton 3 - 0 Arsenal L
15 Sep 2026League Cup Ipswich 2 - 4 Arsenal W
12 Sep 2026Premier League Sunderland 0 - 2 Arsenal W
09 Sep 2026UEFA Champions League Napoli 0 - 1 Arsenal W
5 W 2 D 3 L in the last 10
28 Oct 2026League Cup Liverpool 1 - 1 Chelsea D
24 Oct 2026Premier League Chelsea 0 - 2 Tottenham L
17 Oct 2026Premier League Everton 0 - 2 Chelsea W
10 Oct 2026Premier League Chelsea 5 - 1 Bournemouth W
18 Sep 2026Premier League Brentford 3 - 0 Chelsea L
12 Sep 2026Premier League Chelsea 2 - 2 Hull City D
09 Sep 2026League Cup Chelsea 6 - 3 Leeds W
06 Sep 2026Premier League Arsenal 2 - 1 Chelsea L
30 Aug 2026Premier League Chelsea 4 - 3 Brighton W
27 Aug 2026League Cup Chelsea 2 - 0 Luton W

Who wins? Three ways to read it

1 · X · 2
Goal model
Form & stats
Bookmaker odds
Arsenal Draw Chelsea
Value spotted: Chelsea win at 5.13 (model 49% vs market 19%)

Most likely scores

2-2 5.7%
2-3 5.7%
3-2 4.8%
3-3 4.8%
1-2 4.6%
1-3 4.6%

Expected goals: 2.5 Arsenal · 3 Chelsea

Goal lines

Over 1.5 goals96%
Over 2.5 goals90%
Over 3.5 goals78%
Both teams score86%

Team comparison

Form Attack Defence Goal model Head to head Goals Overall
50%
Form
50%
36%
Attack
64%
100%
Defence
0%
100%
Goal model
0%
93%
Head to head
7%
67%
Goals
33%
61%
Overall
38%

Season numbers

Premier League 2026

When the goals come

1
0-15'
3
1
16-30'
0
0
31-45'
2
2
46-60'
1
0
61-75'
2
0
76-90'
0
0
0-15'
0
0
16-30'
1
0
31-45'
1
0
46-60'
1
0
61-75'
0
0
76-90'
0
Arsenal Chelsea

Side by side

Arsenal Chelsea
2 Played 2
2 Won 2
0 Drawn 0
0 Lost 0
2 Goals scored per game 3.5
0 Goals conceded per game 2.5
3 / 1 Scored per game (home / away) 4 / 3
2 Clean sheets 0
0 Failed to score 0
2 Longest winning run 2
3-0 Biggest win 4-3
- Biggest defeat -
0/0 Penalties scored 0/0

Arsenal vs Chelsea: preview and prediction

Arsenal host Chelsea in the England Premier League (Regular Season - 3) on Sunday, 6th September 2026 at 16:30 at Emirates Stadium, London. Arsenal sit 2nd in the table and Chelsea 5th.

Arsenal are in good shape, with 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 games (W-W-D-W-D). Chelsea have been inconsistent, with 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 games (L-W-W-L-D).

In the last 9 meetings, Arsenal won 6, Chelsea won 0 and 3 ended level. These games average 3 goals, with both teams scoring in 67% and over 2.5 goals in 56%.

Our goal model expects about 2.5 goals for Arsenal and 3 for Chelsea. It gives Chelsea the edge (33% home win, 17% draw, 49% away win), 90% for over 2.5 goals and 86% for both teams to score. The most likely score is 2-2.

Our pick was Over 1.5.

Published by

Football Analyst & Predictor · Rarabet

Arsenal vs Chelsea FAQs

What is the best prediction for Arsenal vs Chelsea?

Our top tip is Banker: Over 1.5.

Who will win Arsenal vs Chelsea?

Chelsea are favourites: our model gives Arsenal 33%, the draw 17% and Chelsea 49%.

Will both teams score?

Both teams scoring has a 86% chance in our model, and it happened in 67% of recent meetings.

How many goals are expected?

Our model expects 5.5 goals in total, with a 90% chance of over 2.5 goals.

When is Arsenal vs Chelsea?

Kick-off is on Sunday, 6th September 2026 at 16:30 at Emirates Stadium, London.

Who is the referee?

Chris Kavanagh, England is in charge of this game.