{"id":954,"date":"2024-04-08T11:37:44","date_gmt":"2024-04-08T11:37:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/rarabet.com\/news\/?p=954"},"modified":"2024-04-08T11:37:44","modified_gmt":"2024-04-08T11:37:44","slug":"the-time-travelers-guide-to-sports-betting-historical-odds-as-future-predictors","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/rarabet.com\/news\/2024\/04\/08\/the-time-travelers-guide-to-sports-betting-historical-odds-as-future-predictors\/","title":{"rendered":"The Time Traveler\u2019s Guide to Sports Betting: Historical Odds as Future Predictors"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"Time
\nWe punters rely on all sorts of historical data to make accurate predictions, from head-to-head, home\/away performance, scoring form, and much more. But one such historical data that often gets overlooked is the \u201chistorical betting odds\u201d of an event.<\/span><\/p>\n

The idea of using historical odds to inform your betting approach or strategies might sound strange at first, but it\u2019s the exact opposite. Three researchers from two universities in Italy confirmed the relevance of betting odds data for making football predictions in a 2018 study [1].<\/p>\n

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So if betting odds data can help us to make better predictions, why not gain deeper insight by studying historical betting odds, how teams performed against those odds, and factors that influenced the performance?<\/span><\/p>\n

Predictors that stick with a select range of betting markets can even study the historical odds for those specific markets. On your journey, you might discover new and interesting markets, so we recommend 22bet, which has the most betting markets among bookmakers in the country. And you can use the\u00a0<\/span>22bet bonus code<\/span><\/a>\u00a0to unlock exclusive bonuses without limits on betting markets.<\/p>\n

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The Importance Of Historical Odds As Punters<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Unlike betting data such as head-to-head, recent form, or goal-scoring form, the immediate benefit of studying historical odds isn\u2019t so obvious. But upon closer inspection, you\u2019ll find that betting odds contain valuable information that can aid predictions.<\/span><\/p>\n

Before we go further, it\u2019s crucial to understand how bookmakers set their odds.<\/span><\/p>\n

Bookmakers accept bets on a given market and adjust the odds to attract bets in the right proportion to make a profit regardless of the outcome.<\/span><\/p>\n

They achieve this by offering odds that are higher or lower than their actual statistical probability. The difference between the actual statistical probability and what the bookmaker offers is known as the \u201cbookmaker\u2019s margin\u201d. This margin represents what the bookmaker is charging for providing their betting services.<\/span><\/p>\n

One major factor that influences how bookmakers adjust their odds is public sentiment. When public sentiment favors one side of a bet, it can cause the odds of an event to be over or undervalued.<\/span><\/p>\n

DraftKings showing the percentage of bets favoring one side of an event (via X)<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

In the picture above, DraftKings showed that 91% of bets on their platform favored Jalen Brunson to score over 28.5 points. Because the odds overwhelmingly favor one side, bookmakers may reduce the odds of the event or increase the odds of the opposite event (ie. under 28.5).<\/p>\n

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Knowing which bets are over or undervalued compared to their statistical probability can help you spot \u201ccontrarian betting opportunities.\u201d More on that in the section below.<\/span><\/p>\n

Practical Uses Of Historical Betting Odds For Future Predictions<\/strong><\/h3>\n