The market for sports betting has grown to an unprecedented degree, to a point where new people are joining smart betting shops every day. The interesting thing about this, is that these fans are bringing their expertise and interests, and finding ways to infuse them with sports betting. For example, betting enthusiasts interested in predictive analysis and data examination have created a strategy that might just change the game.
What is Predictive Analysis?
As is the case with any market, the sports betting industry has certain trends. It may be the rise of bet brokers, a surge in a specific type of betting, or an excellent new business, like the Edge sports trading platform, which is gaining a lot of attention. Predictive analysis is a way to study data, in order to predict what might rise in popularity next. In essence, predictive analysis entails pouring over data and metrics, and coming up with a conclusion about the next big thing in sports betting.
A lot of sports gamblers have elevated predictive analysis to the next level, attempting to inject it into their strategies. While a relatively new phenomenon, these data-driven strategies seem to have proven quite effective. That being said, many in the world of betting are still unfamiliar with the hot new trend. That is why we are here. In this article, we would like to go over the evolution of smart betting, and the rise of data-driven sports betting, which will certainly change the industry for years to come.
Is Predictive Analysis Effective?
The first question we have to answer is whether predictive analysis is effective in the first place? Many sports gamblers may hear this, and go directly to accuracy. After all, there is no other way to measure effectiveness, then to find out whether a method is accurate or not. Only, there is; the effectiveness of data-driven predictive analysis models in sports betting is based around calibration. So, what is the difference between calibration and accuracy?
Well, accuracy focuses on whether a prediction is correct or not. For example, if in the Premier League, Arsenal was playing against Everton, we could accurately predict the winner, based on past matches. But, what sportsbooks are looking for is not just an accurate prediction, but the odds of one of the outcomes coming true. The process by which we determine said odds is called calibration, and it is the cornerstone of predictive analysis, and data-driven strategizing.
The question now becomes, is predictive analysis effective? Well, the good news is that we have scientific studies to answer the question for us. Researchers examined calibration’s impact on NBA betting. By the end, they determined that systems focusing on calibration are significantly more effective than those that only focus on accuracy. Not only did the research show that there is a difference, but quite a stark one at that, with calibration-focused systems yielding a much better return on investment.
Data-Driven Systems: How to Build One
What happens if you want to start building your data-driven system? Where should a complete newbie start? The place to start is with a predictive model algorithm. The algorithm’s job would be to analyze various features of a game, and generate different probabilities. Depending on how the systems are calibrated, they may be used for overall match bets, prop bets, and more. The models will take into account information like, previous win/loss statistics, available players, and more, before they finish their calculations.
However, you can’t just stop at the cold-hard facts. A proper gambler needs a betting strategy. The best way to go here is by starting with a fixed betting system. As the name suggests, a fixed betting system requires players to wager the same, fixed amount on all of their bets. The payout potential isn’t massive here, but it is a steady and safe strategy to start with. Of course, there are plenty of betting fans who aren’t looking for safe or steady.
If you are willing to take risks, there are alternatives to the fixed betting strategy. Namely, the progressive systems, that call for increasing your wager after each loss. The key thing to remember here is that progressive systems carry a lot of risk. That is why we must remind anyone implementing them to remember the concept of bankroll management and responsible gambling. It simply would not do to lose an entire bankroll, after going through the trouble of coming up with a complex, data-driven betting system.
Sports Betting’s Future
We certainly see data-driven systems and predictive analysis becoming a staple of sports betting in the future. In fact, odds makers are already implementing predictive analysis to a certain degree, when creating odds. But, now that technology has made the practice a lot more available to the average people, we wouldn’t be surprised if average sports gamblers began to implement it as well. But, of course, it also wouldn’t surprise us to learn that many are using artificial intelligence in their analysis.
AI is the talk of the town right now. There are many who oppose it, and many who celebrate the new invention. Certainly, there are a lot of problems with the new technology. But, there is no denying that, if we were capable of fixing those problems, AI would become an incredibly useful tool. Indeed, it would have a great impact on the sports betting industry, especially on data-driven systems. After all, machine learning could help the average smart betting fan process data much faster, come up with odds for a future match within seconds.
Whatever the future may hold, one thing is certain; smart betting is definitely going to change the industry, and ensure a competitive edge for bookmakers, bettors, and more. It is certainly an exciting time to enjoy sports betting. But, it can also be quite overwhelming. That is why, we always recommend new players start out by doing some research, so they can get into the industry casually, before delving into the innovations that are changing the way we wager.
